Breaking News
0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Natural Gas Rally Rolls On As Heat Spike Trips Up Forecasters

By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com)CommoditiesJul 22, 2021 03:54AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-rally-rolls-on-as-heat-spike-trips-up-forecasters-200592912
Natural Gas Rally Rolls On As Heat Spike Trips Up Forecasters
By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com)   |  Jul 22, 2021 03:54AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

Every energy market got crushed during this week’s Black Monday, but not natural gas

Natural Gas Daily
Natural Gas Daily

Futures of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange lost 7% while that of gasoline fell 6%. NYMEX gas futures on the Henry Hub alone rose almost 3% that day.

And gas has continued to outperform its energy peers since, accumulating almost 7% on the week for what could be its best week in five. 

On Wednesday, Henry Hub’s front-month August contract on NYMEX hit a more than 2-½ year high of $3.965 per mmBtu, or million metric British thermal units, nearing the much-awaited $4 level.

In fact, the winter gas months of December through February all settled above $4 per mmBtu in NYMEX’s Wednesday session, leaving market punters who had bet that gas prices will consolidate this week due to earlier readings for benign temperatures in disbelief.

So, what’s happening with “natty”—as it’s popularly known in the trade?

Unexpected Temperature Turn

Well as they say, blame it on the weather.

Yes, an unexpected turn in temperature could again cause a heat spike across the United States in the near term, say analysts who’ve parsed latest weather forecasts and worked out what that may mean for the market.

As always, the change will decide how much of the gas that’s produced each week gets burned for cooling and power generation and how much that’s left over gets injected into underground storage.

Dan Myers, analyst at Houston-based gas markets risk consultancy Gelber &  Associates said:

“A turn to widespread above-average temperatures in coming days suggest that additional bullish, smaller than average injections are on tap in the weeks ahead.” 

“For the seven days ending July 30th alone, our injection expectations have come down about 13 bcf since last Wednesday due to stronger cooling demand forecasts for next week.”

Natural Gas Storage Forecast
Natural Gas Storage Forecast
Source: Gelber & Associates

The debate over gas injections comes as the Energy Information Administration prepares to release its latest weekly update of the US natural gas storage situation at 10:30 AM ET (14:30 GMT) today. 

According to forecasts from analysts tracked by Investing.com, US storage levels for natural gas had probably risen by 44 bcf, or billion cubic feet, during the week ended July 16.

If true, that would be 20% lower than the 55 bcf injected into storage in the previous week to July 9, ostensibly due to higher burning of the fuel for cooling.

On an annual basis, the injection for the July 16 week is slightly higher than the 38 bcf seen during the same week a year ago. It is also higher than the five-year (2016-2020) average of 36 bcf.

But more importantly, the injection for the July 16 week would take total gas stockpiles in storage to 2.673 tcf, or trillion cubic feet. That would be 6.3% below the five-year average and 16.7% below the same week a year ago.

While utilities burned more gas last week compared with the week before, temperatures were fairly unchanged to year-ago levels. Data provider Refinitiv said there were 87 CDDs, or cooling degree days last week, compared with the 30-year average of 88 CDDs.

CDDs, which are used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit or 18 degrees Celsius.

Even Hotter Days Coming

Bespoke Weather Services, in a forecast carried by industry portal naturalgasintel.com, said forecasts tilted even hotter over the next two weeks. Adding:

“All of the changes lie in the forecast for next week, as we continue to see models shift hotter in locations from the lower Midwest into the South, especially Texas. This is tied into the addition of some blocking in the North Atlantic, which in summer is a hotter signal in the southern US.”

“We see at least a few days in the medium range landing in the 100-105-degree range for highs in cities such as Dallas, marking quite the change from the pattern month-to-date,” the firm added. “Relative to normal, the strongest heat remains in the north-central US, where 90s will be widespread from Minneapolis to Des Moines, and even over to Chicago at times. Some 90s will be seen over in the Mid-Atlantic as well late month.”

According to naturalgasintel.com, production this week has averaged around 91 bcf, or roughly 2 bcf below 2021 highs reached in June. 

The combination of relatively light output with accelerating demand has industry observers concerned that utilities may not inject enough gas into underground storage this summer to satisfy looming winter needs for the fuel to power furnaces, the portal reported.

Winter Gas Storage Levels Do Not Look Comfortable

Forecaster Bespoke said: “Until we can at least match the year-to-date highs” in production, “the rally could easily continue.” 

The firm said that reaching $4 pricing “looks like a given” for Henry Hub’s prompt August month, as the market continues to digest the reality that, at least right now, there is simply not enough production to get US gas storage to comfortable enough levels heading into the winter. 

Unlike in years past, “there has been little material loosening in supply/demand balances despite the strong surge higher in prices,” Bespoke added.

Analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co meanwhile said that beyond the move lower in supply, pricing dynamics in recent days had largely come down to power generation as well.

The rally in natural gas prices has “done little” to dampen demand for power generation, the analysts at TPH said.

The TPH team said wind and solar generation have underperformed in recent days, down to just 5% of total generation at the start of this week after averaging 9% over the first half of July. 

But gas’ share of thermal generation rose to 61% early this week, following a steady average of 60% last week which suggested that substitute coal, despite its cheaper price, was “struggling to meet the call as renewables lag."

EBW Analytics Group concurred with that view, saying:

“With opportunities for coal displacement largely exhausted, there is no clear stopping point for how high gas prices might need to rise to adequately refill storage before the injection season ends.”

Disclaimer: Barani Krishnan uses a range of views outside his own to bring diversity to his analysis of any market. For neutrality, he sometimes presents contrarian views and market variables. He does not hold a position in the commodities and securities he writes about.

Natural Gas Rally Rolls On As Heat Spike Trips Up Forecasters
 

Related Articles

Craig Erlam
Oil Rebounds, Gold Consolidates By Craig Erlam - Jul 23, 2021

Oil prices have bounced back strongly after a rocky start to the week. OPEC+ struck a deal to slowly ramp up production each month by 400,000 with a view to erase all cuts by the...

Natural Gas Rally Rolls On As Heat Spike Trips Up Forecasters

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (7)
Sam Sneed
Sam Sneed Jul 22, 2021 4:06PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
hey ...you have these momo traders eating at the palm of your hands ...the other indian guy had to stop posting his bullish articles because he was so wrong many times...he ran away
Sam Sneed
Sam Sneed Jul 22, 2021 4:05PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
so u have this bias bullish view implying that nat gas will keep rallying despite two weeks of  bearish reports.....
Empire Builder
Empire Builder Jul 22, 2021 8:49AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Great article. I appreciate your references to REAL gas market analysts.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Jul 22, 2021 8:49AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Thanks much for the appreciation. There really is a lot of good data out there but we have to look for it. Bests.
Mike Daedone
Mike Daedone Jul 22, 2021 7:43AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Demand is there as cooling and heating are both needed
Zaw Htet
Zaw Htet Jul 22, 2021 7:10AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
thanks
Vasantha Prabhakaran
Vasantha Prabhakaran Jul 22, 2021 7:07AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
hi sir, will crude oil price further increase or decrease,kindly clarify..thank you
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Jul 22, 2021 7:07AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Oil is being held above $70 now, but pay particular attention to the weekly EIA data. That will determine everything. Less crude draws and higher gasoline builds are never too good.
Salim Hamdulay
Salim Hamdulay Jul 22, 2021 4:40AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
thanks sir
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email