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Natural Gas: Opening Gap Could Change The Whole Equation

By Satendra SinghCommoditiesMay 02, 2021 01:46AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-opening-gap-could-change-the-whole-equation-200576912
Natural Gas: Opening Gap Could Change The Whole Equation
By Satendra Singh   |  May 02, 2021 01:46AM ET
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Despite a strong closing last Friday, Natural Gas Futures could start the first trading session of the upcoming week with a gap.

This gap could be a gap-up or a gap-down; still have no idea, but an opening on the first trading session heightens the level of excitement level of the traders. Natural Gas Futures that were maintaining an uptrend since Apr. 22 found a pace on Apr. 30 due to changing demand-supply equation.

I find that the strength shown by Natural Gas Futures just before the weekly closing looked quite decisive this time. I believe the probabilities of a gap-up could be around 70%, while the gap-down possibilities could be nearly 30%. This could extend volatility to a greater extent.

On the upper side, Natural Gas Futures could test the highs above $3.2. While on the lower side, Natural Gas Futures could go down to $2.888.

Finally, both the bears and the bulls could try to show their full strength during the upcoming week.

Natural Gas Futures 1 Hr. Chart
Natural Gas Futures 1 Hr. Chart


Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities in the world.

Natural Gas: Opening Gap Could Change The Whole Equation
 

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Natural Gas: Opening Gap Could Change The Whole Equation

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Comments (3)
R k Mad
BeRight May 03, 2021 10:32AM ET
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'''a gap-up or a gap-down; still have no idea''' - Finally honest analysis! Haha...
Mike Jordan
Mike Jordan May 03, 2021 9:42AM ET
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clean coal way cheaper ,, to expensive to ship natural gas at these prices
Maco Novota
Maco Novota May 02, 2021 6:40AM ET
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Dear Author, I read your analyzes offen but I would like to ask something. In stockpiles is 1898 Bcf (last report EIA till April 23rd) and if we forget year 2020 (significant less gas spend due to Covid.19) and compare storage report with 2019, where 3rd week in April was storage report only 1462 and 5yr. avarage 1850 Bfc why anylitics do not compare these to years insted of year 2020, when whole business was closed (less spend gas). 2020 also significantly rise 5 yr. avarage about 100 Bcf each month and now all reports in 2021 looks like bullish, but they are not.. Don´t you think it is NatGas market bubble?
Satendra Singh
Satendra May 02, 2021 6:40AM ET
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Dear Mr. Novota thanks for your comments.  I appreciate your logic.  You are absolutely right if we analyze the current fundaments.  I find that Natural Gas is the most liquid commodity in the world that makes the trend difficult to remain one-sided despite the factual position.  I find that due to growing industrial demand and a tilt in global policy towards curtailing carbon emission, natural gas could continue to see steep growth in price.  I think the natural gas futures are still at the base of a blasting move.  Secondly, a sudden one-sided directional move is always seen as a manipulation attempt.   This is only due to the different mindsets of bulls and bears at different times Most of the readers prefer to know the short-term direction or the immediate directional and size of the next move.  There is no doubt that the prediction of a short-term directional move is extremely difficult but I try my best to work hard to predict the short and as well as long-term directions.
KC Cl
KC Cl May 02, 2021 6:40AM ET
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Maco Novota - Bingo, good post.....
Maco Novota
Maco Novota May 02, 2021 6:40AM ET
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Satendra Singh  Dear Mr. Santedra, thank you for your reply..
 
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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely based on the technical observations. I do not have any position in Natural Gas. One can create position in Natural Gas at his/her own risk.
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