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Natural Gas: Opening Gap Could Change The Whole Equation

BySatendra Singh
Published 05/02/2021, 01:46 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM


Despite a strong closing last Friday, Natural Gas Futures could start the first trading session of the upcoming week with a gap.

This gap could be a gap-up or a gap-down; still have no idea, but an opening on the first trading session heightens the level of excitement level of the traders. Natural Gas Futures that were maintaining an uptrend since Apr. 22 found a pace on Apr. 30 due to changing demand-supply equation.

I find that the strength shown by Natural Gas Futures just before the weekly closing looked quite decisive this time. I believe the probabilities of a gap-up could be around 70%, while the gap-down possibilities could be nearly 30%. This could extend volatility to a greater extent.

On the upper side, Natural Gas Futures could test the highs above $3.2. While on the lower side, Natural Gas Futures could go down to $2.888.

Finally, both the bears and the bulls could try to show their full strength during the upcoming week.

Natural Gas Futures 1 Hr. Chart

Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities in the world.

Latest comments

'''a gap-up or a gap-down; still have no idea''' - Finally honest analysis! Haha...
clean coal way cheaper ,, to expensive to ship natural gas at these prices
Dear Author, I read your analyzes offen but I would like to ask something. In stockpiles is 1898 Bcf (last report EIA till April 23rd) and if we forget year 2020 (significant less gas spend due to Covid.19) and compare storage report with 2019, where 3rd week in April was storage report only 1462 and 5yr. avarage 1850 Bfc why anylitics do not compare these to years insted of year 2020, when whole business was closed (less spend gas). 2020 also significantly rise 5 yr. avarage about 100 Bcf each month and now all reports in 2021 looks like bullish, but they are not.. Don´t you think it is NatGas market bubble?
Dear Mr. Novota thanks for your comments.  I appreciate your logic.  You are absolutely right if we analyze the current fundaments.  I find that Natural Gas is the most liquid commodity in the world that makes the trend difficult to remain one-sided despite the factual position.  I find that due to growing industrial demand and a tilt in global policy towards curtailing carbon emission, natural gas could continue to see steep growth in price.  I think the natural gas futures are still at the base of a blasting move.  Secondly, a sudden one-sided directional move is always seen as a manipulation attempt.   This is only due to the different mindsets of bulls and bears at different times Most of the readers prefer to know the short-term direction or the immediate directional and size of the next move.  There is no doubt that the prediction of a short-term directional move is extremely difficult but I try my best to work hard to predict the short and as well as long-term directions.
Maco Novota - Bingo, good post.....
 Dear Mr. Santedra, thank you for your reply..
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