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NASDAQ 100's Elliott Wave Count: Market Has Not Proven A Bullish Setup Yet

By Dr. Arnout ter Schure Stock MarketsAug 17, 2022 12:55PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/nasdaq-100s-elliott-wave-count-market-has-not-proven-a-bullish-setup-yet-200628648
NASDAQ 100's Elliott Wave Count: Market Has Not Proven A Bullish Setup Yet
By Dr. Arnout ter Schure   |  Aug 17, 2022 12:55PM ET
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Since I alerted that the NASDAQ 100 had broken out from the potential bullish wedge, the gains have followed. The index extended beyond the typical 161.80% Fibonacci extension for a 3rd/C-wave. See figure 1 below.

Upside surprises and downside disappointments are the hallmarks of a bull market. But the index is still below its 200-day Simple Moving Average, which delineates the long-term trend between bearish (below the SMA) and bullish (above the SMA). Thus, the bulls still need to prove themselves. Allow me to explain below.

Figure 1. NASDAQ 100 daily candlestick chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators

NASDAQ 100 Daily Chart.
NASDAQ 100 Daily Chart.

There are now enough daily up and down moves to update the high-probability Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count I shared two weeks ago. As I said, the index extended beyond the typical 161.80% Fibonacci level. Wave extensions can always happen. They cannot be known beforehand but must always be anticipated. These extensions do not mean the EWP does not work. Quite the contrary. It simply means things do not have to be textbook/ideal all the time.

That said, please remember I have not seen (green) wave 4 or 5 yet, so the market has not proven any bullish setup just yet. It kept extending higher, bullish, but I must get the five waves up in sequence. Then, the next more significant multi-week pullback should be a low-risk buying opportunity for the next leg higher. Thus, the green dotted path is now preferred, especially since the NDX topped right in the extended 3/c target zone with a picture-perfect v=i relationship (grey arrow). This path means I will be looking for a low around $13,000+/-200 from where the next leg is higher, to ideally $14,200+/-200 kicks in. Due to the extension, it means support has now been raised to the $12,900 level. Below it, on a daily closing basis, the red path becomes much more likely with (red) wave-b down to ideally $12,100 before red wave-c kicks in.

Conversely, above yesterday's high, the NDX can try to target the upper end of the green 3/c target zone: $14,200. However, given the negative divergences on the technical indicators (orange arrow), I find that option less likely.

Bottom Line: The NDX has only done three waves up from the June low. Thus, over the next couple of weeks, you'll see bears calling for the top (wave C) and the bulls calling for a wave four low. But, from a trading perspective, trying to catch the potential wave-5 rally when the index reaches the ideal wave-4 target zone is a low-risk buying opportunity when using a daily close below $12,800 as an appropriate stop loss.

NASDAQ 100's Elliott Wave Count: Market Has Not Proven A Bullish Setup Yet
 

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NASDAQ 100's Elliott Wave Count: Market Has Not Proven A Bullish Setup Yet

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Comments (8)
Gulfstream Five
Gulfstream Five Aug 29, 2022 6:49AM ET
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Support at 12100 now?
Joe Ko
Joe Ko Aug 18, 2022 4:48PM ET
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thoughts on this being an leading expanding wedge? labeling as such that this current move that we are in is the wave 4, making your green line the top of wave 2
Mangalavati Citra
Mangalavati Citra Aug 18, 2022 5:46AM ET
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Interesting but I didn’t understand much of it… Perhaps the author should include beginners like myself in his explanations and not take for granted that everyone understands the different parts of the pictures? Which are the waves?
Roger Rabbit
TheDonger420 Aug 18, 2022 5:46AM ET
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Or you could do your own “google” searches on the big words like everyone else. Earn your stripes. The investigation leads you to your investment IQ.
Raj Shan
Raj Shan Aug 17, 2022 8:41PM ET
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Appreciate the update..Thanks
Amadeo RP
Amadeo RP Aug 17, 2022 5:54PM ET
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Thx for sharing your analysis.
Gabriel Gama
Gabriel Gama Aug 17, 2022 5:42PM ET
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As reliable as horoscope and astrology.
Leo Sanchez
Leo Sanchez Aug 17, 2022 5:42PM ET
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hola
Gabriel Gama
Gabriel Gama Aug 17, 2022 5:42PM ET
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As reliable as horoscope and astrology.
Michael Galassini
RoyHobbs Aug 17, 2022 4:15PM ET
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I've come to learn Elliott Wavers are never wrong.....they just count and recount until they seem right 🤢
 
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