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NASDAQ 100 Should Still Target High 14000s.

By Dr. Arnout ter Schure Stock MarketsApr 14, 2021 04:19PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/nasdaq-100-should-still-target-high-14000s-200573089
NASDAQ 100 Should Still Target High 14000s.
By Dr. Arnout ter Schure   |  Apr 14, 2021 04:19PM ET
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Two weeks, I showed using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) the Nasdaq 100 had reduced its option from four to two.

I concluded:

"I prefer to look higher per an EWP impulsive move to NDX 14,178-14,428 for a minor 3rd wave, then a retrace to ideally NDX 13,533-13,733 for a 4th wave, followed by the last move higher – a 5th wave- to ideally NDX 14,645-14,890 to complete the impulse that started March 2020.

So far, so good, as the NDX reached a new all-time high. But it is seeing some red today. So is the preferred EWP count to the high-14,000s still on track?

Figure 1 below says yes, but as long as the index can stay above 13,540 on a closing basis. If not, then that would be a severe warning to the bulls that the decline from yesterday's all-time high is not the grey minute wave-iv, but something else.

Figure 1: NDX100 daily candlestick chart with EWP count and technical indicators.

NASDAQ 100 Daily Chart.
NASDAQ 100 Daily Chart.

Hence, for now, I prefer to view the index in a small degree 4th wave, which should last a few days, and to fall back to ideally the 13,540-13,720 zone, which is the 23.60-38.20% retrace of the length of the last grey minute wave-iii, which would be normal 4th wave behavior. From that zone, I then expect a rally to the NDX 14,178-14,428 for minute wave-v of green wave minor 3, as shown already two weeks ago. The up-pointing technical indicators (green boxes) support higher prices as well. Besides, the index is well above its rising 10d, 20d, 50d, and 200d SMA as pointed out by the horizontal small, green arrows, which add weight to the evidence of the index being in a 100% bull run.

Bottom line: The NDX took the "impulse move to the upside" road map a few weeks ago, and my preferred view back then "to look higher per an EWP impulsive move to NDX 14,178-14,428 for a minor 3rd wave, then a retrace to ideally NDX13533-13733 for a 4th wave, followed by the last move higher – a 5th wave- to ideally NDX 14,645-14,890," was so far correct and as such remains my preferred point of view. It would take a close below 13,540 from current levels to put pressure on this impulse pattern. I view the decline that started today as a minute-degree 4th wave. One can see it as some profit-taking after an over 7% gain since my last update and an 11% run since the late-March low.

NASDAQ 100 Should Still Target High 14000s.
 

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NASDAQ 100 Should Still Target High 14000s.

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Comments (9)
Billy Read
Billy Read Apr 30, 2021 5:40PM ET
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Dr. Arbout - thanks for this article when is the next update due?
Ram Ch
Ram Ch Apr 18, 2021 7:27PM ET
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Thanks for the chart. However, wasn't the black wave 5 supposed to be completed at 13,793 as there was a big rally from black wave 4 until mid-Feb? What made you not complete that wave in Feb?
indie indie
indie indie Apr 15, 2021 3:21PM ET
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Great reminder Dr. Thanks. Would be great to hear what happens after 5th wave is finished.
Adam Paine
Adam Paine Apr 14, 2021 10:28PM ET
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a great observation of the bubble
Edward Chong
Edward Chong Apr 14, 2021 9:41PM ET
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always wrong.
Oumar Traoré
Oumar Traoré Apr 14, 2021 7:43PM ET
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Bon soir
Solomon Lalani
Solomon Apr 14, 2021 5:02PM ET
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Hats off Doc! You eventually also proved correct on TSLA - I was wrong! Good analysis from you as always :)
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dr. Arnout ter Schure Apr 14, 2021 5:02PM ET
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Thank you!
Quy Nguyen
Quy Nguyen Apr 14, 2021 4:59PM ET
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Thanks DR. I am really appreciate for your work.
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dr. Arnout ter Schure Apr 14, 2021 4:59PM ET
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Thank you!
Sergey Polyakov
Sergey Polyakov Apr 14, 2021 4:24PM ET
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Looks like true! Thanks!
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dr. Arnout ter Schure Apr 14, 2021 4:24PM ET
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Thank you.
 
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