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NASDAQ 100 Has Turned Around And Should Be Heading For 16,000

By Dr. Arnout ter Schure Stock MarketsJun 30, 2021 02:15PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/nasdaq-100-has-turned-around-and-should-be-heading-for-16000-200589142
NASDAQ 100 Has Turned Around And Should Be Heading For 16,000
By Dr. Arnout ter Schure   |  Jun 30, 2021 02:15PM ET
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The NASDAQ 100 has finally caught up with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The latter two essentially rallied unabated to new daily all-time highs from their recent March lows, while the NDX was stuck between 13000 and 14000. This sideways price pattern complicated my interpretation of the charts and misled me on the actual underlying price pattern. But as I tell my premium members, “Please remember, my work is ~70% reliable and ~90% accurate. Thus, be realistic and do not expect perfection and zero bad calls in a dynamic, stochastic, probabilistic environment.”

Thus, as the index marched to new ATHs recently, I had to abandon my more bearish stance that it would first revisit these March lows before heading higher. Instead, my preferred Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count suggests the index is completing its 3rd of a 3rd wave: grey minute wave-iii of green minor-3. See figure 1 below.

Figure 1 NDX100 daily candlestick chart with EWP count and technical indicators.

NASDAQ 100 Daily Chart.
NASDAQ 100 Daily Chart.

The index has now reached well inside the ideal wave-iii target zone and should start a correction, wave-iv, soon targeting ideally NDX 14081-14255 before rallying again. See the outlined Fibonacci-based anticipated EWP path in Figure 1.

Namely, based on historical evidence, we know 3rd waves typically reach the 1.382 to 1.618x Fibonacci-extension of the 1st wave, measured from the 2nd waves low. This is all “textbook,” but the market can essentially do anything, i.e., extend, truncate, correct more in time (sideways) than in price, etc. Thus, we only have an anticipated road map, which needs to be tracked daily to see if the index makes a detour, short-cut or takes the scenic route. When the market departs, nobody knows which exact course it will take, but we have a reasonable expectation, i.e., a blueprint. Thus, all we can do is “anticipate, monitor and adjust if necessary.”

My recent anticipation, see here, was proven wrong, and I am adjusting as necessary. It is as simple as that. Based on the EWP rules, we know that if the index can hold above NDX 13770, it can move higher to 15,000-16,000. A severe warning for the outlined bullish path is already on a break below NDX 14080. A move below Monday’s low (NDX 14400) will tell us the anticipated smaller wave-iv is under way. It should hold NDX 14080. As usual, please remember in bull markets, downside disappoints and upside surprises. To prove the point, the index even surprised me as I was looking for lower prices first.

NASDAQ 100 Has Turned Around And Should Be Heading For 16,000
 

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NASDAQ 100 Has Turned Around And Should Be Heading For 16,000

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Comments (5)
Ram Ch
Ram Ch Jul 05, 2021 6:49PM ET
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In EWP, 3rd wave should be the longest. Your chart describes the 5th wave as longer than the 3rd one(red v is longer than red iii). Sometimes EWP looks funny to me as we draw the lines however we want and call them the waves and if the prediction goes wrong we re-draw the lines :). I guess you need to combine with other technicals rather than just drawing the lines to make an EWP chart. Ignore if you don't like it.
slug go
slug go Jul 03, 2021 11:55AM ET
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Really bad analysis. Website is highly not reliable. Shooting rubbish
Vincent Maina
Vincent Maina Jul 03, 2021 11:55AM ET
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Jouni Matero
Jouni Jun 30, 2021 6:24PM ET
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Not fting to be rude but using word "should" here sounds to me like you're suffering of "moral hazard", you might consider reading this and then give another thought whether NQ "should" be heading to 16k or perhaps "could": https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4437077-technically-speaking-stock-market-warnings-from-behind-the-curtain
Jouni Matero
Jouni Jun 30, 2021 6:24PM ET
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fting = trying
Leon Kelly
Leon Kelly Jun 30, 2021 6:07PM ET
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i think we saw the start of the correction with a rotation back into cylicals and banks today
Steve Dyer
WaveRunner Jun 30, 2021 4:27PM ET
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I have a similar count in my EW chart, except the top is a wave V (major top) at 16898 ,not a III, in my count. As an alternate I have the final wave 12345 overlap and ends as a triangle in the 15k area. Price action dictates!! Thanks for the article.
 
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