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Nasdaq 100 Could Target $9500

By Dr. Arnout ter Schure Stock MarketsSep 23, 2022 02:13PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/nasdaq-100-could-target-9500-200630249
Nasdaq 100 Could Target $9500
By Dr. Arnout ter Schure   |  Sep 23, 2022 02:13PM ET
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Three weeks ago (see here) I was tracking a possible impulse move down for the Nasdaq 100 from the mid-August high (i.e., five waves lower as per the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP)). I wrote then:

Today's reversal candle suggests wave-iii completed, and wave-iv should now be underway, targeting ideally $12400+/-100. The index should not move above last week's low of around $12900, or it would invalidate this possible impulse path. Once wave-iv completes, wave-v should ideally target about $11400-11600.

The index had indeed bottomed for wave-iii, and wave-iv ended the next day at $12451. However, wave-v failed to travel the total distance and only reached as low as $11928 on September 6. This miss shows markets do not always have to follow text-book paths. That would be too easy. Regardless, that low completed an impulse lower.

The subsequent rally was a countertrend bounce, and now the index is impulsing lower again, following along the bearish path I recently shared for the S&P 500. Now that the market has stepped through this bearish door, the NDX's impulse path lower is shown in Figure 1 below.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart
Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart

Figure 1. NASDAQ100 daily candlestick chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators

Black W-c comprises ideally five smaller red W-i, ii, iii, iv, and v. Those, in turn, are made up of smaller waves as well: green W-1, 2, 3, 4, 5 for red W-iii/c. The progress of these waves is shown in Figure 1 with the green dotted arrows and their associated Fibonacci-based ideal price target zone. This (green) path remains the focus until proven otherwise.

The otherwise, in this case, is presented as the red "alt: a, b, c" EWP count (red dotted arrows). It would mean the index bottoms around $11000+/-200 over the next few days and then stages a rally back to or potentially even exceeding the August highs. It would require a break above the green W-2/b level (Wednesday's high at $12062) to suggest this will happen. But, for now, the red path remains an alternative, although it can be used to place appropriate stops, etc., and thanks to the EWP, we have an excellent general road map to help us navigate the markets.

Nasdaq 100 Could Target $9500
 

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Nasdaq 100 Could Target $9500

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Comments (14)
Corey Stanford
Corey Stanford 3 hours ago
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I am a silent follower. Thank you for sharing, Dr. Arnout ter Schure! I hope you don't let the internet trolls discourage you from posting more.
Edith Castro Bravo
Edith Castro Bravo Sep 26, 2022 10:44PM ET
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Hi Everyone, I want to kindly remind you about reading the comment guidelines in this forum. It is a little discouraging reading some of your comments which do not follow the guidelines.  Also, the stock market is very complex, you should never use only one source as your guide, unless you got a good sense on how to use it or how it works.    Most experienced analyst affirmed that the market had bottomed in June with the S&P500 at 3,666.77, but now we can see that is not the case; the market has past that mark down. Perhaps, many of those people who did not sell because they bought in the June lows, may be a little angry now haha, but perhaps not if they have a good plan. Everything that analysts give to us is only a guide, and we should take responsibility of our decisions and actions. I recommend that you never use money that you will need in the short term (this is not morally responsible by the way). This will make your trading or investment journey more enjoyable.  Cheers!!
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dr. Arnout ter Schure Sep 26, 2022 10:44PM ET
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Thank you, Edith. Unfortunately, it is always the same few characters spewing their hatred (Mike Sim, Beckham, R D, and a few others). If you check their profiles and read what they constantly comment on everywhere it is rather shocking. They are sad individuals, in a sad state of mind. It does not matter what you say, what you do, it will never be good or right in their eyes. However, https://investing.com is not policing its comments sections. Those personally insulting comments, name-calling, defamatory, negative non-constructive remarks. are indeed not allowed, but nothing is done about it. Self-reporting is obviously not sufficient. If one provides an option for comments, one must also actively manage those comments. Like every other social media platform does.
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dr. Arnout ter Schure Sep 26, 2022 10:44PM ET
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Moreover, this also goes to all the normal, good people out there. Who enjoy my work but remain silent in the background. If you do not do anything, if you do not report these remarks, if you do not push back and respond to those individuals who are out of line, then we have "evil will prevail when good men do nothing." and I will decide to stop posting my work in a hateful environment. Nobody deserves to be treated this way. So, kudos to you Edith for stepping up. Now it is time for the others to support you and push back on the Mike's, Mat's, Bill's etc. of this world. Enough is enough.
Edith Castro Bravo
Edith Castro Bravo 22 hours ago
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Hi Dr. Arnout, Yes, all this toxic commenting is not good! Definitely, https://investing.com needs to protect its community of analysts. This is not good to its best interest as only toxic culture can form here. Hopefully it will stop, but If you ever decide to leave this site, then let us know where you are going so we, who are interested in your articles, can follow.  By the way, I am taking advantage of that little rally in the first week of October LOL! If it ever happens that the larger rally "alt: c" takes place, it will also be a win situation. Keep us updated if there is any change! Thank you!!
Mike Tottleben
Mike Tottleben Sep 26, 2022 12:04AM ET
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Sorry, but I just can't put much stock in these ***"chartists".  I put them in the same category as tarot card and palm readers. Black Scholes, Elliott Waves, Stochastics, candlestick patterns, etc. all seem to be a bunch of BS to me. The only thing that has worked for me in this hyper volatile period we are in is to simply watch the price action, and get in and out quickly, using careful loss management practices.
Mike Sim
Mike Sim Sep 25, 2022 10:27PM ET
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Dr Scam is finally bearish after making ridiculous bullish calls like 18000 and then 15000 in june. But like always he leaves himself an out- so no matter what- he can comment that he wasn’t entirely wrong. What absolute joke. He even when he plays it both ways- his targets dont even come close. He gets within 10% and tries to claim win. This man is a scam artist top to bottom. I dont know why this site allows him to sell his snake oil…
Leo DeMarco
Leo DeMarco Sep 25, 2022 10:27PM ET
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I disagree with your premise Mike. In following his insight and guidance, I have profited greatly. Of course, no one is ever 100% correct. I will continue to profit from him greatly. Good luck with your trading/investing.
Mike Sim
Mike Sim Sep 25, 2022 10:27PM ET
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Leo DeMarco lmao yeak ok. If you followed him you on the streets begging for money. He has been widely wrong all year.
Mat Mat
Mat Mat Sep 25, 2022 10:27PM ET
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Exactly, he is a totally scam maker only. In last time he informed Nas will be on 17k-18k in short time ;-) I would like to see positions on buy those players which bought Nas after articel from doctor mistake :-) huge huge losses after last “recommendations” haha ;-)
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
Dr. Arnout ter Schure Sep 25, 2022 10:27PM ET
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Mat Mat  Really? In my last update about the NASDAQ100 from September 2nd, when the index was trading at 12220s, I said "Once wave-iv completes, wave-v should ideally target about 11400-11600. It bottomed at 11928. But they, keep living the old narrative.
Bill Bill
Bill Bill Sep 25, 2022 6:49PM ET
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Nice. Whatever happems youre right. Haha
jack bay
jack bay Sep 24, 2022 11:36AM ET
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i hope up ustech100 upto 12500
Jerome NY
Jeff_Musk Sep 24, 2022 6:03AM ET
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Well 9500 looks very low from the top over 16000 but still it’s all time high level before pandemic. And at 9500 level still lots of growing tech stock’s value are overvalued, PER btn 30-80. Means we might see lower then 9000 if people invest on the basis of normal valuation
Ross Dre
Ross Dre Sep 24, 2022 6:03AM ET
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Musk bringing the gospel! My how this market has the worst short term memory ever. The market was horribly overbought just before the pandemic began.
Edith Castro Bravo
Edith Castro Bravo Sep 23, 2022 8:05PM ET
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Dr. Arnout,  This is very informative. As a newbie in the stock market, I realized that I have to watch the news and read a lot, but this is definitely a great complement to make better decisions. Perhaps, I would have already entered the market just because it has gone down so much LOL. One of the questions is definitely, when is the market going to bottom? Looking at these charts gives me so much information. Thank you for all this work, and for freely sharing it with the community.  Cheers!
Raj Shan
Raj Shan Sep 23, 2022 7:24PM ET
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Appreciate your update..Thanks 👍
abu bakar ismail
abu bakar ismail Sep 23, 2022 5:30PM ET
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Great article. Always welcome the warning of two possible paths forward. We'll see which path it will take next week. Looking forward to your next article. Thanks.
 
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