Morning Fundamentals: Commodities Report

performed well overnight despite U.S. equity markets falling from five year highs. Gold traded an overnight range of $1,663 to $1,684. In other precious metals, silver may be looking to challenge the status of its more high profile counterpart as sales of silver coins by the U.S Mint surged to an all time record high. So far in January, during which sales of silver coins were temporarily halted because of lack of supply, 7.42 million ounces have been sold. The short term long gold positions we entered into earlier in the week have closed out overnight in profit. We maintain a neutral outlook for gold in the short term and will continue to seek intraday and shorter term range trading opportunities between $1,625 and $1,700. Outside of these ranges we expected the triggering of significant stop losses to increase momentum away from this established range. Today, look for a $1,670 to $1,685 range.

Compass Direction
Short-Term Medium-Term
NEUTRAL BULLISH


US Oil continues to gain. A significant upward trend has now developed and it looks like further rises are likely. However, although we have altered our short term outlook to neutral, we maintain our bearish outlook in the medium term. It appears that fundamentals have been sidelined as investors focus on issues such as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Egypt. Overnight, the Energy Department released figures that showed that stockpiles increased by double that of consensus estimates at 5.95 million barrels last week. Furthermore, U.S. GDP unexpectedly fell in the fourth quarter. Yet prices keep rising. We are seeing some technical trading in WTI at the moment. We are now sidelined looking to sell aggressively into a bounce towards $100.00 which nows looks almost inevitable. Today, we expect WTI to be range bound within a narrow band as investors remain sidelined before non-farms payrolls.

Compass Direction
Short-Term Medium-Term
NEUTRAL BEARISH