It looks like a quiet Global Week Ahead. This happens towards the end of any month.
Below are Reuters in London’s five big world market themes, ranked in order of importance for major stocks.
These are, for the most part, a continuation of worries that surfaced in recent weeks.
Nothing is ‘new’ news.
(1) More Angst and News About Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)
The Facebook shock has been a hugely significant moment in this long-running bull market.
Tech and internet stocks — such as the fabled FAANGs and BATs — have dominated and driven the equity rally of the past 2-3 years, mainly because the digital revolution underlying the boom in those companies was seen as largely impervious to shifting political winds or even ebbs and flows in the economic cycle.
In the long run that may still be true. But Facebook’s travails and questions over the use of ‘Big Data’ more generally — or at least the advertising model underlying many of these companies — has cast some doubt over whether that progress is as linear as market pricing suggests.
This week may well be all about the growls coming from governments and their regulators on how far they will go to rein in the power of social networks. Mark Zuckerberg already has a long list of what are not exactly ‘friend’ requests to testify in front of various countries’ lawmakers.
(2) Worry Over a China-US Trade War and NAFTA
There are fears of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China.
If that weren’t enough to set the nerves racing, the two sides are butting against each other in the South China Sea again. Experienced analysts suggest we may not see a full-fledged trade war.
On NAFTA timelines: Unconfirmed guidance has been that the eighth round of talks may commence on April 8th in Washington. It takes about 7 to 10 days for the round to be completed. That seems a safe bet. Therefore, we might know by the week of April 16th of any hope for a “NAFTA-II.”
(3) A European Stock Slump
High expectations for European stocks in 2018 have not been met.
Eurozone and UK business confidence data due out this week will either inflame or soothe concerns that the region’s economic momentum may be starting to wane.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) equity strategists say Europe is now seeing record outflows versus the United States, and even the popularity of French President Emmanual Macron — elected last year with a strong mandate to reform rigid labor markets — has now hit an all-time low in the polls.
The French CAC-40 share index is now down 5 percent from when Macron won power last May, though that is still better than the near 7 percent the pan-European Stoxx 600 has lost.
(4) The First Quarter of 2018 Draws to a Close
The first quarter draws to a close, and what a quarter it has been.
Investors have had a lot thrown at them, from the biggest-ever rise in stock market volatility to rapidly escalating tensions over global trade, deepening tumult in the White House and tech sector wobbles.
The market “melt-up” they all talked about in January has melted away, the Dow and S&P are down for the year, and the outlook for Q2 is a great deal more uncertain. Global trade tensions are now infecting investor sentiment and risk appetite, there are signs that growth has peaked (particularly in Europe), rising dollar interbank rates show no sign of reversing, and the global liquidity pool will shrink this year.
Will the bears continue to gain the upper hand in Q2, or will the bulls charge again?
(5) Final US GDP Growth Data from Q4-17
The final U.S. government read on fourth quarter GDP on Wednesday will come hot on the heels of the Fed’s first interest rate hike of the year.
In theory it should be reassuring. The United States is a fairly closed economy, and in the fourth quarter Donald Trump was dishing out tax cuts, not threatening trade wars.
The U.S. Commerce Department also said on Friday that new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods rebounded more than expected last month and shipments of core capital goods saw the biggest advance since December 2016.
Other real-time data, though, is not so encouraging. An Atlanta Fed GDPNow model — which updates weekly — is now forecasting Q1 GDP increasing at an annualized rate of 1.8 percent. At the start of March it was around 3.5 percent.
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Key Global Macro—
The end of the week looks most promising for key macro data.
China releases the state versions of its purchasing managers indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing and service sectors on Friday.
This light data week ahead will also feature data on Japanese unemployment on Friday, U.S. personal income on Thursday and University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. It will also offer public comments by the New York Fed chief.
On Monday, the Netherland’s real GDP growth rate comes out. The prior has been +2.9% y/y.
The TJLP long term rate in Brazil is forecast to fall from 6.75% to 6.5%.
On Tuesday, Argentina’s 7-day repo reference rate should stay flat at 27.25%.
The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index comes out. It is running a bit hot at +6.3% y/y.
Mexico’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate comes out. It should get to 3.4%. That is low.
On Wednesday, the South African SARB policy rate comes out. It should stay fixed at 6.75%.
The Bank of Thailand policy rate comes out. It has been 1.5%.
US real GDP growth comes out. It should get to 2.7% y/y from 2.5%. y/y.
On Thursday, Germany’s unemployment rate comes out. It is 5.4% in seasonally adjusted terms.
The U.K. real GDP growth rate comes out. It has been +1.4% y/y.
The national unemployment rate in Brazil comes out. It may go rise from 12.2% to 12.7%.
U.S. initial claims come out. It was 229K last week which is low.
U.S. personal income and spending comes out. Personal income this month should be up +0.3% and spending up +0.2%.
The University of Michigan sentiment index comes out. It looked good last month at 102.
On Friday, Japan’s unemployment rate comes out. It will stay quite low at 2.5%.
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