Breaking News
Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+: Start 7 Day FREE Trial Register here
Investing Pro 0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your experience. Save up to 40% More details

Markets Trying to Find Near-Term Bottom

By Harry DentMarket OverviewMar 18, 2020 01:30PM ET
Markets Trying to Find Near-Term Bottom
By Harry Dent   |  Mar 18, 2020 01:30PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

Two things I have been predicting for years that most people just can’t get have just started to happen.

You know when a person keeps going into cardiac arrest or flatlining, the doctors keep shocking them with the defibrillator until they finally give up and pronounce the patient dead?

I say the economy was finally pronounced “dead” on Monday when stocks crashed 3,000 points, the highest ever, after the greatest injection by the Fed ever – trillions of dollars since Thursday, with a peak on Sunday night.

1) The markets finally realized that you can’t stop a crisis by printing every more money, as it’s just “denial” and “something for nothing,”


2) The first crash out of a massive stock bubble like this tends to be 30% to 49%, or 42% average within 2.5 months.

This is all happening now. Everyone told me it couldn’t happen – central banks and governments wouldn’t let it.

The market is making its first attempt to find at least a short-term bottom. I don’t think we are there yet, but we may get a decent bounce first to allow the risk-averse to get out.

The S&P 500 has just tested the critical bottom trendline through the lows since the 2009 bottom.

The market keeps crashing to slightly lower lows since it started falling apart last week and hit its greatest one-day crash just over 3,000 points on Monday. Despite pledging $3 trillion to $5 trillion in repo funding and $700 billion in QE bond-buying, the markets fell more than 3,000 points on Monday. It keeps breaking just below intraday, then bouncing and closing above it.

Stocks are limit down overnight and will likely retest Tuesday’s lows or go a bit lower today. Then it must rally and close back near this line near 2,500 or it is likely to fail further.

Where is the next support? I showed on Monday the 2-year megaphone pattern in the Nasdaq that projected down to 5,500 just ahead, or down 44% from the top. This is the same pattern on the S&P 500 and it projects a fall to around 2,080 or around 39%.

That one more crash would bring a fifth wave down that would look more completed and hit more credible targets for a sustainable low and a rebound that is likely to retrace 50% to 62% of the crash into the summer, or possibly as late as the election. There’s a mountain of stimulus waiting for when the virus scare first recedes.

A short-term bounce that fails could get to near 2,690 on the S&P 500 and 7,900 on the Nasdaq. Selling into that would be recommended, especially for the more risk averse. Don’t try to get the very top here, as a reversal will likely be quick.

I will report more next week, but I am tracking the virus acceleration in critical places like Italy, Iran and Spain using S-Curve patterns to get a better idea of when this trend could start to slow and give some daylight for the markets. That could be as soon as the end of March to mid-April.

Markets Trying to Find Near-Term Bottom

Related Articles

Markets Trying to Find Near-Term Bottom

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (3)
Tar Jay
Tar Jay Mar 18, 2020 3:23PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
I devoured your book in 2016, Mr. Dent.  I wish I'd been more patient.  Still young enough to learn from this.  Many thanks!
Antonio Piccolo
Antonio Piccolo Mar 18, 2020 2:26PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
The only way to come out from this crisis is to do opposite of what Trump, Trudeau, Merkel, Macron  are doing now: open  the frontiers immediately  and organize medical tests to go in and out the countries with official medical certification made in advance. These are short -sighted politicians that,  terrorized by virologists, are destroying the markets and then  real economy light tourism, airlines, banks, industrial companies hoping to be elected next time.  This is the equivalent of financial crisis of 1929 induced by  incompetent  politcians  that closed the international commerce and  reduced money supply to the banks.  We are in the hands of people incapable of any sort of innovation and coordination.
Ashwin Shah
Gravity2020 Mar 18, 2020 2:13PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email