UE and US futures are again in red. NASDAQ 100 Futures - 1.70%, S&P 500 Futures -1.70%, DAX -4,80 %, FTSE MIB -5,40 %, at writing.
The Eurozone stock exchanges are stunned by the sales and fall to levels not seen since the outbreak of the pandemic. Different situations in the US, with the country that, in the end, will be the one that, regardless of the scenarios, will benefit from this situation.
There is currently no positive news. The US certainly has no interest in an agreement as it would replace Russia in trade. We expect much more from the EU, which is currently paralyzed.
Over the course of the night, following statements by US foreign minister Anthony Blinken, Brent rose to $ 139 a barrel. Blinken told a television station that he is negotiating with Europe a stop to imports of Russian oil, as well as interventions capable of ensuring the satisfaction of demand.
The Americans, therefore, want to replace Russia and become the European supplier.
Conclusions
From a military point of view, virtually nothing happened in Ukraine over the weekend, with Russian military units massed at the border and around Kyiv at the moment waiting for orders.
At the moment the market is following the news, my idea of a short-term agreement finds more and more obstacles, with the US pushing for a non-agreement for their reasons that is causing panic selling throughout Europe, with the surge in prices of commodities that will put the whole of Europe in difficulty, primarily Germany and Italy.
My portfolio is suffering, as it is set up for stabilization of the situation and not a worsening. In these cases, there are two choices to make. Double down or remain motionless to observe. Since I am already exposed, I will opt for the second option, and I will not perform any operations for at least a month.
As traders who invest in stocks, futures, and derivatives, instruments with high risks that allow us to make excellent returns, we know that unexpected events are part of the game and must be considered. Given the endless twists and turns, making a forecast on upcoming events becomes very difficult.
Following the history of the previous conflicts, it is observable that the markets after a collapse in the first weeks of the conflicts have always recovered within 12 months. Even if there will be suffering in the short term, I remain confident in a resolution in the short term, with a political agreement that will end the conflict.
Never as in these days, those with a high mental management rating, those who have chosen the right securities and tools with good entry timing will eventually win out of the situation with excellent returns.