Market Overview

What’s fair value for a currency? Actually, if you think about it, it’s a pretty stupid question, even if we ask it all the time. There is no such thing as fair and frank in the...

It was all going well for Jumei investors when the stock was reaching the heady heights of $38, but two earnings reports and an Alibaba IPO-related capital flight later have left investors looking at...

Today’s calendar does not include any notable data releases, so I will discuss several developments that could lead to important turning points in asset prices. The highlight of next week will...

FX traders need to know whether they are following the Federal Reserve or fighting it. The trouble is, it is difficult for non-economists to decipher inscrutable monetary policy statements, Fed Open...

In one of the least surprising pieces of news this year, UKIP and Mark Reckless won the Rochester & Strood by election last night by around 3,000 votes or 7 percentage points. This was slightly...

Currencies The euro remains above 1.2500 and formed its resistance at 1.2575 against the USD. The euro erased part of its losses after the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday as policy makers are...

Market-based inflation outlook suggests long-term inflation at just 1%. That said, BEI-spreads are cheap compared to market-based inflation - especially at the short end. SD causes budget/political...

In a recent post, I wrote that being a contrarian investor can be a lonely task and can involve considerable career risk (see Do you have what it takes to be a contrarian investor?). The point being...

The first hint that the global economy’s recent weakness is creeping into the US arrived in today’s preliminary November update of the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index...

Stock/Bond Ratio Not Confirming RallyFollowing the October swoon, stocks have vaulted to all-time highs. As I discussed previously in "Sentiment Is Off The Charts Bullish," there have only been few...

Note from Doug: Having lived for two wonderful years in Paoli, PA, a suburb west of Philadelphia just south of Valley Forge, I have a special interest in this regional indicator. But, more...

There is plenty of data out today and it is generally reinforcing our three main thematic points: divergence, weak commodities—especially energy—and the slowing of the Chinese economy....

The euro flash PMIs continued lower in November, still showing a declining trend in euro-area activity. The composite PMI new orders declined to 49.9 and went below 50 for the first time since June...

The outlook for the global economy is suffering these days, but there’s still no clear sign that the deceleration in macro activity has infected the US. Based on the latest numbers for October,...