Get 40% Off
👀 👁 🧿 All eyes on Biogen, up +4,56% after posting earnings. Our AI picked it in March 2024.
Which stocks will surge next?
Unlock AI-picked Stocks

Market Battle Fatigue: China Versus U.S.

Published 07/15/2019, 12:13 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

There have been numerous reports of an economic slowdown (and even contraction in some sectors) in China, one of which describes those in detail at ZeroHedge. While some of China's difficulties may have been exacerbated by a fairly recent trade war with the U.S., it certainly didn't start them. Other factors were already in play and bear responsibility for its inception, as explained therein.

There are a couple of gauges that seem to measure the strength/weakness of both the United States' and China's economies, namely the Loonie and the Aussie dollar, respectively.

Canada exports many commodities to the U.S., while Australia exports many to China. The strength/weakness of those exports is reflected in their respective currencies, and, hence, in the economies of the U.S. and China.

The long-term monthly forex chart below of CAD/AUD shows that the Loonie has, essentially, outperformed the Aussie dollar since February 2012, albeit with several periods of sustained volatility peppering it along the way.

CAD/AUD Monthly Chart - Powered By TradingView

The monthly forex chart of CAD/USD shows that price has, once again, pierced above major resistance around the 0.76 level. Watch for that level to hold to, potentially, signal continued strength in the U.S. markets, versus China's weakness.

CAD/USD Monthly Chart - Powered By TradingView

The monthly forex chart of AUD/USD shows that price is hovering just above major support at 0.70. If this level is broken with force and held, watch for continued China weakness.

AUD/USD Monthly Chart - Powered By TradingView

The following daily forex chart of the Loonie versus the Aussie dollar (CDW/XAD) shows that price briefly broke above major resistance at 1.100 several days ago, hinting of further weakness ahead for China.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

Watch for price to possibly retest this level, and if it breaks above and holds, I'd like to see the RSI tick up again and both the MACD and PMO indicators reverse back to the upside in support of further strength in the Canadian Loonie...potentially, signaling further weakness ahead for China.

CDWXAD Price Chart

The following Year-to-date percentages gained/lost graph of the major world currencies illustrates the difference between the Loonie and Aussie dollar. There's quite a gap between the two in terms of Loonie gains and Aussie dollar losses, so far, this year.

Year-To-Date Percentages Gained/lost Graph Of Major Currencies

The following one-week percentages gained/lost graph shows a slight uptick of the Aussie dollar over the Loonie this past week...one to keep a close eye on over the coming days/weeks, along with the above-mentioned charts and price levels, as potential gauges in determining the strength/weakness of China's economic health.

One-Week Percentages Gained/lost Graph

In addition, the following two monthly charts give a long-term bird's eye view of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and China's Shanghai Index (SSEC).

China's weakness since mid-2015 is striking, compared with the strength of the U.S. market. I don't think that can be entirely attributed to the current trade war, which is relatively recent, and I think that more weakness may lie ahead.

S&P 500 Monthly Chart - Powered By TradingView

SSEC Monthly Chart - Powered By TradingView

Finally, I'd just point out that the following SPX:SSEC daily ratio chart shows that the SPX is poised to continue outperforming the SSEC, with minor short-term resistance some distance above at 1.10...another gauge to throw into the mix of, purely technical, analysis of the United States' and China's economic and market health.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

SPX:SSEC Daily Ratio Chart

Latest comments

Still think we are ready for a pull back with your recent article when SPY hits $3047?
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.