Keep Your Eye On OPEC+ Meeting And FOMC Minutes

Weekly Technical Analysis For April 6th to 10th, 2020

US Non-Farm Payrolls plunged 701k in March, a far greater collapse than the expected, -100k. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%. The coronavirus pandemic caused massive disruptions to the global trade and labor market.

On the other hand, Euro was under selling pressure last week with the publication of the Eurozone’s final March PMIs. The data showed an even deeper than feared impact from the coronavirus, and many of the prints marked the worst on record.

In the upcoming week, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its policy meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank delivered an emergency half percentage-point cut last week. The Federal Reserve said they will inject $1.5 trillion in reserves into the financial system.

The Fed’s decision to cut rates came two weeks ahead of a regularly scheduled policy meeting. The last time the Fed made a rate cut between scheduled meetings was in October 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis.

Besides the FOMC Meeting Minutes, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on JOLTs Job Openings, Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index as well as Michigan Consumer Sentiment

In the Eurozone, the minutes of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting due Thursday is expected to provide investors with an insight into the European central bank’s thinking on monetary policy.

In the last policy meeting, the European Central Bank surprisingly announced that it was not cutting rates. Instead, the ECB introduced measures to support bank lending and expanded its asset purchase program by 120 billion euros ($135.28 billion).

Moreover, all eyes will be on this week's OPEC meeting. Trump said he expects Saudis/Russia to cut 10-15 mbpd. Crude Oil surged after Trump reports a Saudi-Russian deal. OPEC+ delegate also said to see a global output cut of 10 mil bpd as a realistic goal. Watch out, we might see a huge price movement on Crude Oil.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair showed a downward movement from 1.1137 and then closed last week just above the daily support level of 1.0806. As long as the price stays above 1.0806 on a daily basis, the fall may pause and we might see the upward reaction. At this point, we will see 1.0876 as a key resistance level. In contrast, if the pair breaks down below 1.0806, the bearish action may gain more momentum and we will see 1.0728.

Support: 1.0806 - 1.0728 - 1.0623
Resistance: 1.0876 - 1.0930 - 1.0965

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair is now trading below key level of 1.2286. If the price stays below 1.2286 on a four hourly basis, the daily support level can be seen at 1.2205 again. On the other hand, if the pair rises above 1.2286, the next resistance level is holding at 1.2364.

Support: 1.2205 - 1.2110 - 1.2024
Resistance: 1.2286 - 1.2364 - 1.2428

Gold: The Gold Price jumped up from the main support level of 1612. We will closely watch the daily resistance level of 1626. In order for the upward movement to continue, it needs to rise and sustain above 1626 on a daily basis. At this point, we will see 1638 as the next resistance level. On the downside, if the price breaks down below 1612, the next support level will be at 1606.

Support: 1612 - 1606 - 1590
Resistance: 1626 - 1638 - 1650

USD/CHF: Focus on the main support level of 0.9757 in the USD/CHF pair. As long as the price stays above 0.9757 on a four hourly basis, the upward movement may gain more momentum and we will follow 0.9831 as a resistance level. On the downside, If the pair falls below 0.9757, we will see the next support level at 0.9701.

Support : 0.9757 - 0.9701 - 0.9656
Resistance : 0.9831 - 0.9877 - 0.9938

NAS100 Futures Index: The NAS100 futures index started higher this week and moved up above the main support level of 7800. As long as the index stays above 7800 on a four hourly basis, the upward movement may continue and the main resistance level can be found at 7940. On the downside, if the index drops below 7800, the next support level will be at 7701.

Support: 7800 - 7701 - 7623
Resistance: 7940 - 8024