Shanghai Composite shrugs weak trade data with another rise
Economic Data
(CN) CHINA NOV TRADE BALANCE: $19.6B V $26.9BE (6 month low); EXPORTS Y/Y: 2.9% V 9.0%E; IMPORTS Y/Y: FLAT V 2.0%E
(CN) CHINA NOV PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: -2.2% V -2.0%E (5-MONTH HIGH)
(CN) CHINA NOV CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.1%E (3-MONTH HIGH)
(CN) CHINA NOV URBAN FIXED ASSETS YTD Y/Y: 20.7% V 20.9%E (MATCHES 8-MONTH HIGH)
(CN) CHINA NOV RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 14.9% V 14.6%E (8-MONTH HIGH)
(CN) CHINA NOV INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 10.1% V 9.8%E (8-MONTH HIGH)
(AU) AUSTRALIA OCT HOME LOANS M/M: 0.1% V 3.0%E (3-month low); INVESTMENT LENDING: 5.5% V 8.8% PRIOR; OWNER-OCCUPIED HOME LOAN VALUE: -0.2% V 1.4% PRIOR
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY VOLUME Q/Q: 2.6% V 0.3% PRIOR; MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY Q/Q: +1.6% V -1.1% PRIOR (5-quarter high)
(JP) JAPAN Q3 FINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.9% V -0.8%E; GDP ANNUALIZED: -3.5% V -3.3%E; NOMINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.9% V -0.9%E; GDP DEFLATOR Y/Y: -0.8% V -0.7%E (smallest decline in 3 years)
(JP) JAPAN Q4 BSI LARGE ALL INDUSTRY Q/Q: -5.5% V 2.2% PRIOR; BSI LARGE MANUFACTURING: -10.3% V 2.5% PRIOR (6-quarter low)
(JP) JAPAN OCT TOTAL CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥376.9B V ¥230.9BE; ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT TOTAL: ¥414.1B V ¥247.0B PRIOR; CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: -29.4% V -59.0%E
(JP) JAPAN OCT TRADE BALANCE - BOP BASIS: -¥450.3B V -¥450.0BE
(JP) JAPAN NOV BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS: 1.0% V 0.8% PRIOR; BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS: 1.3% V 1.1% PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 39.4 V 39.7 PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN NOV ECO WATCHERS CURRENT SURVEY: 40.0 V 39.0 PRIOR; OUTLOOK SURVEY: V 41.7 PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN NOV BANKRUPTCIES Y/Y: -12.0% V +6.0% PRIOR
(KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: -0.2% V +0.2% PRIOR
(UK) NOV LLOYDS EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE: -42 V -35 PRIOR
Markets Snapshot (as of 05:45 GMT)
Nikkei225 flat
S&P/ASX +0.1
Kospi +0.1%
Shanghai Composite +0.7%
Hang Seng +0.4%
Dec S&P500 +0.1% at 1,417
Feb gold +0.2% at $1,718/oz
Jan Crude Oil +0.6% at $86.40/brl
Notes/Observations
Further evidence of a slow and steady recovery on the mainland is boosting Shanghai Composite to another session of impressive gains. A-shares investors are shrugging disappointing trade data while focusing on multi-month high rates of y/y growth in industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and inflation metrics. Shanghai Composite was up at session highs over 1% in the final hours of trade.
Italian political landscape was in shambles after PM Monti announced an abrupt resignation after losing support of Berlusconi's PDL party. The latter has announced interest in returning to politics, as Monti now tries to secure support from his allies going into the 2013 budget vote. Democratic Party chief Bersani - the presumed frontrunner in the impending elections - said Italy would respect the EU commitments if elected as next PM would proceed with liberalization and not dismantle pension/labor reform.
Greece debt buyback was largely seen as proceeding according to plan, even though no final results have yet been announced. Greece PM Samaras said details would be released on Monday or Tuesday, while separate press were skeptical over investor appetite of covering the required €30B after rumors of reopened bidding. EUR/USD opened below $1.29, down about 30pips from Friday close, before paring those declines.
Japan reviled its Q3 final GDP largely inline with preliminary figures, disappointing expectations of a slight improvement. Moreover, Japan cabinet office has acknowledged the economy is on the edge of a recession, noting Q2 was flat and still required careful interpretation, indicating its bias is with growth contracting in Q2 as well.
Pres Obama and House Speaker Boehner were said to have met at the White House for a round of in-person budget talks on Sunday. No additional details were available in terms of any progress made following more indication of a stalemate, but two sides said the lines of communications remained open.
Currencies/Fixed Income/Commodities
GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise by 1.8 tons to 1,353.3 tons (record high) - update as of Dec 7th
EUR/USD Opens down over 30 pips below $1.2890
USD/CAD: CAD remaining bid in early Asian session on M&A demand after Canada govt confirms approval of NXY/CNOOC merger late on Friday; USD/CAD falls below C$0.9870, lowest level since Oct 18th
USD/KRW: South Korea Fin Min Bahk: Govt reviewing additional measures on currency
AUD/USD: Falls about 15pips to session lows below $1.0470 after China trade data
USD/CNY: (CN) China's CNY currency (Yuan) hits the upper limit of its daily 1.0% range on OTC market at 6.2293
(JP) Japan automakers and other large customers likely to call for lower steel prices in Jan-Mar quarter due to declining prices of iron ore - Nikkei News
Speakers/Political/In the Papers
(CN) China International Capital Corp (CICC) economist Peng: 2013 fiscal policy to remain positive; Monetary policy to be neutral or slightly loose - SCMP
(CN) Goldman Sachs chief China economist: Not anticipating any further China policy loosening; Expecting a slow and steady recovery - CNBC
(CN) China former Trade Commerce official: China may not meet its foreign trade growth target of 10%
(CN) China NBS deputy head Xie: China economy has been stabilizing since Sept - Chinese press
(CN) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) researcher: Dec retail sales may rise over 15% - Chinese press
(JP) According to QUICK Corp survey, Japan Dec Tankan survey is likely to show 2nd consecutive quarter of decline - Nikkei News
(KR) South Korea Ministry of Knowledge Economy: Exports of vehicles expected to rise 3.1% in 2013 - Korean press
(KR) Korea Employers Federation (KEF): 51.2% of South Korea's CEO said to be planning to downsize in 2013, up 9.2pts from 2012 levels - Korean press
(VN) Vietnam Central Bank Gov Binh: Vietnam to continue flexible and prudent monetary policy - financial press
(VN) Vietnam govt continues to see 2012 GDP at 5.2%, and 2013 at 5.5%
(EG) Egypt Pres Mursi has annuled the constitutional decree expanding his power on Saturday, sending shares of Egypt stock market to its biggest gain in 5 months - financial press
Equities
TM: Plans to delay construction of Tianjin facility due to decline of China sales - Japan press
JFE Steel Corp to delay decision on whether to build an integrated steel mill in Vietnam until March - Nikkei News
Toshiba 6502.JP: Expanding its infrastructure business in India; Plans to add 50% more engineers this year and aiming for 7x increase in sales by 2014 - Nikkei News
Toshiba TOSBF: Awarded ¥20B contract for an undersea power transmission line linking Cepagatti in Italy and Kotor in Montenegro
Nintendo 7974.JP: Most Japan retailers have sold out Wii U units with preorders in initial sales - Japanese press
763.HK: EU considering steps on Huawei and ZTE after findings they have dumped products on European markets at sharply discounted prices - US financial press
TEN.AU: Director Gina Rinehart supports second capital raise (update) - SMH
VAH.AU: Sir Richard Branson may relinquish control of Virgin within a few days; Holding talks with Delta Air Lines and Air France-KLM - UK press
BCI.AU: To acquire additional 25% of Nullagine JV for A$190M - financial press
WPL.AU: To acquire a 50% stake in 2nd exploration license offshore Myanmar - The Australian
MAH.AU: Halted ahead of capital raise statement
GNC.AU: Acquisition attempt by ADM likely to be delayed by Chinese Ministry of Commerce - The Australian
FCG.NZ: Raises FY12/13 forecast payout by NZ$0.25 to NZ$5.90-6.00; Sees FY12/13 net profit at NZ$0.40-0.50/shr
BEAM: Diageo and Japan's Suntory have held talks on making a joint bid for BEAM estimated above $10B or about $65/shr ($9.5B market cap) - UK press
AIG: Announces Agreement to Sell up to 90% of International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC) at $5.28B
PSON.UK: Bloomberg LP said to be considering acquiring The Financial Times (estimated value $1.2B) - financial press
Economic Data
(CN) CHINA NOV TRADE BALANCE: $19.6B V $26.9BE (6 month low); EXPORTS Y/Y: 2.9% V 9.0%E; IMPORTS Y/Y: FLAT V 2.0%E
(CN) CHINA NOV PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: -2.2% V -2.0%E (5-MONTH HIGH)
(CN) CHINA NOV CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.1%E (3-MONTH HIGH)
(CN) CHINA NOV URBAN FIXED ASSETS YTD Y/Y: 20.7% V 20.9%E (MATCHES 8-MONTH HIGH)
(CN) CHINA NOV RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 14.9% V 14.6%E (8-MONTH HIGH)
(CN) CHINA NOV INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 10.1% V 9.8%E (8-MONTH HIGH)
(AU) AUSTRALIA OCT HOME LOANS M/M: 0.1% V 3.0%E (3-month low); INVESTMENT LENDING: 5.5% V 8.8% PRIOR; OWNER-OCCUPIED HOME LOAN VALUE: -0.2% V 1.4% PRIOR
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY VOLUME Q/Q: 2.6% V 0.3% PRIOR; MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY Q/Q: +1.6% V -1.1% PRIOR (5-quarter high)
(JP) JAPAN Q3 FINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.9% V -0.8%E; GDP ANNUALIZED: -3.5% V -3.3%E; NOMINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.9% V -0.9%E; GDP DEFLATOR Y/Y: -0.8% V -0.7%E (smallest decline in 3 years)
(JP) JAPAN Q4 BSI LARGE ALL INDUSTRY Q/Q: -5.5% V 2.2% PRIOR; BSI LARGE MANUFACTURING: -10.3% V 2.5% PRIOR (6-quarter low)
(JP) JAPAN OCT TOTAL CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥376.9B V ¥230.9BE; ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT TOTAL: ¥414.1B V ¥247.0B PRIOR; CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: -29.4% V -59.0%E
(JP) JAPAN OCT TRADE BALANCE - BOP BASIS: -¥450.3B V -¥450.0BE
(JP) JAPAN NOV BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS: 1.0% V 0.8% PRIOR; BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS: 1.3% V 1.1% PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 39.4 V 39.7 PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN NOV ECO WATCHERS CURRENT SURVEY: 40.0 V 39.0 PRIOR; OUTLOOK SURVEY: V 41.7 PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN NOV BANKRUPTCIES Y/Y: -12.0% V +6.0% PRIOR
(KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: -0.2% V +0.2% PRIOR
(UK) NOV LLOYDS EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE: -42 V -35 PRIOR
Markets Snapshot (as of 05:45 GMT)
Nikkei225 flat
S&P/ASX +0.1
Kospi +0.1%
Shanghai Composite +0.7%
Hang Seng +0.4%
Dec S&P500 +0.1% at 1,417
Feb gold +0.2% at $1,718/oz
Jan Crude Oil +0.6% at $86.40/brl
Notes/Observations
Further evidence of a slow and steady recovery on the mainland is boosting Shanghai Composite to another session of impressive gains. A-shares investors are shrugging disappointing trade data while focusing on multi-month high rates of y/y growth in industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and inflation metrics. Shanghai Composite was up at session highs over 1% in the final hours of trade.
Italian political landscape was in shambles after PM Monti announced an abrupt resignation after losing support of Berlusconi's PDL party. The latter has announced interest in returning to politics, as Monti now tries to secure support from his allies going into the 2013 budget vote. Democratic Party chief Bersani - the presumed frontrunner in the impending elections - said Italy would respect the EU commitments if elected as next PM would proceed with liberalization and not dismantle pension/labor reform.
Greece debt buyback was largely seen as proceeding according to plan, even though no final results have yet been announced. Greece PM Samaras said details would be released on Monday or Tuesday, while separate press were skeptical over investor appetite of covering the required €30B after rumors of reopened bidding. EUR/USD opened below $1.29, down about 30pips from Friday close, before paring those declines.
Japan reviled its Q3 final GDP largely inline with preliminary figures, disappointing expectations of a slight improvement. Moreover, Japan cabinet office has acknowledged the economy is on the edge of a recession, noting Q2 was flat and still required careful interpretation, indicating its bias is with growth contracting in Q2 as well.
Pres Obama and House Speaker Boehner were said to have met at the White House for a round of in-person budget talks on Sunday. No additional details were available in terms of any progress made following more indication of a stalemate, but two sides said the lines of communications remained open.
Currencies/Fixed Income/Commodities
GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise by 1.8 tons to 1,353.3 tons (record high) - update as of Dec 7th
EUR/USD Opens down over 30 pips below $1.2890
USD/CAD: CAD remaining bid in early Asian session on M&A demand after Canada govt confirms approval of NXY/CNOOC merger late on Friday; USD/CAD falls below C$0.9870, lowest level since Oct 18th
USD/KRW: South Korea Fin Min Bahk: Govt reviewing additional measures on currency
AUD/USD: Falls about 15pips to session lows below $1.0470 after China trade data
USD/CNY: (CN) China's CNY currency (Yuan) hits the upper limit of its daily 1.0% range on OTC market at 6.2293
(JP) Japan automakers and other large customers likely to call for lower steel prices in Jan-Mar quarter due to declining prices of iron ore - Nikkei News
Speakers/Political/In the Papers
(CN) China International Capital Corp (CICC) economist Peng: 2013 fiscal policy to remain positive; Monetary policy to be neutral or slightly loose - SCMP
(CN) Goldman Sachs chief China economist: Not anticipating any further China policy loosening; Expecting a slow and steady recovery - CNBC
(CN) China former Trade Commerce official: China may not meet its foreign trade growth target of 10%
(CN) China NBS deputy head Xie: China economy has been stabilizing since Sept - Chinese press
(CN) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) researcher: Dec retail sales may rise over 15% - Chinese press
(JP) According to QUICK Corp survey, Japan Dec Tankan survey is likely to show 2nd consecutive quarter of decline - Nikkei News
(KR) South Korea Ministry of Knowledge Economy: Exports of vehicles expected to rise 3.1% in 2013 - Korean press
(KR) Korea Employers Federation (KEF): 51.2% of South Korea's CEO said to be planning to downsize in 2013, up 9.2pts from 2012 levels - Korean press
(VN) Vietnam Central Bank Gov Binh: Vietnam to continue flexible and prudent monetary policy - financial press
(VN) Vietnam govt continues to see 2012 GDP at 5.2%, and 2013 at 5.5%
(EG) Egypt Pres Mursi has annuled the constitutional decree expanding his power on Saturday, sending shares of Egypt stock market to its biggest gain in 5 months - financial press
Equities
TM: Plans to delay construction of Tianjin facility due to decline of China sales - Japan press
JFE Steel Corp to delay decision on whether to build an integrated steel mill in Vietnam until March - Nikkei News
Toshiba 6502.JP: Expanding its infrastructure business in India; Plans to add 50% more engineers this year and aiming for 7x increase in sales by 2014 - Nikkei News
Toshiba TOSBF: Awarded ¥20B contract for an undersea power transmission line linking Cepagatti in Italy and Kotor in Montenegro
Nintendo 7974.JP: Most Japan retailers have sold out Wii U units with preorders in initial sales - Japanese press
763.HK: EU considering steps on Huawei and ZTE after findings they have dumped products on European markets at sharply discounted prices - US financial press
TEN.AU: Director Gina Rinehart supports second capital raise (update) - SMH
VAH.AU: Sir Richard Branson may relinquish control of Virgin within a few days; Holding talks with Delta Air Lines and Air France-KLM - UK press
BCI.AU: To acquire additional 25% of Nullagine JV for A$190M - financial press
WPL.AU: To acquire a 50% stake in 2nd exploration license offshore Myanmar - The Australian
MAH.AU: Halted ahead of capital raise statement
GNC.AU: Acquisition attempt by ADM likely to be delayed by Chinese Ministry of Commerce - The Australian
FCG.NZ: Raises FY12/13 forecast payout by NZ$0.25 to NZ$5.90-6.00; Sees FY12/13 net profit at NZ$0.40-0.50/shr
BEAM: Diageo and Japan's Suntory have held talks on making a joint bid for BEAM estimated above $10B or about $65/shr ($9.5B market cap) - UK press
AIG: Announces Agreement to Sell up to 90% of International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC) at $5.28B
PSON.UK: Bloomberg LP said to be considering acquiring The Financial Times (estimated value $1.2B) - financial press