Two weeks ago, when Ethereum (ETH) was trading in the $1860s (see here), our primary expectation based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) was,
"Thus, the green W-1, 2; grey W-i, ii setups we have been tracking since January 10 should now be complete. ETH should now be in blue W-iii of orange W-3 of grey W-iii as long as it can stay above … $1765. … Thus, ETH continues to follow our preferred scenario of an EWP-based impulse path higher and has topped and bottomed in most of our forecasted EWP-based target zones." See Figure 1 below.
ETH's orange W-3 and W-4 topped and bottomed around where we had placed their labels two weeks ago: $2137 vs. $2100-2150 and currently $1965 vs. $1950-2000, respectively. See that chart here.
Figure 1. Ethereum daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.
Thus, our preferred, primary expectation for higher prices remains correct, as we have been Bullish on ETH since January. Still, we recognize that ETH must stay above certain levels to keep that upside momentum. Those levels can be used as one's stops, for example. Being mindful of those price levels prevents disaster in one's portfolio.
Why is the $1845 level now critical? Because below that level means what we believe is the orange W-4 will overlap with the orange W-1, and that is not allowed in a standard impulse. In that case, something else will happen, and we must re-assess the charts. For example, we could be off by one or two wave degrees.
In more detail, the current decline should be a minor wave, orange W-4, of the one-degree higher grey W-iii. And in addition to that, green W-3 should still be underway and target, ideally, $2400-2500. Thus, as long as ETH can stay above $1845, with a first warning for the Bulls below $1940 support, it continues to follow our preferred scenario of an EWP-based impulse path higher.
It has topped and bottomed in most of our forecasted EWP-based target zones. See the blue target zones in Figure 1. This foresight is the true power of the EWP, as few would have foreseen this set up months ago, and our premium members and algo-traders reap the benefits of our EW-based foresight.