Is China Spreading Disinflation Again?

www.investing.com/analysis/is-china-spreading-disinflation-again-200632155

By FxPro Financial Services Ltd (Alexander Kuptsikevich) | Nov 09, 2022 10:08AM ET

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A slowdown in economic activity in China and beyond is putting pressure on consumer and producer inflation.

China PPI turns negative in y/y terms

The consumer price index slowed from 2.8% to 2.1% y/y in October, the lowest level since May. The producer price index was 1.3% lower than in October 2021, when its annual growth rate reached a maximum of 13.5% y/y in this cycle.

Remarkably, the fall in the renminbi has failed to reverse the price trend. Although the weakness in domestic prices can easily be put down to a tight 0-covid policy and a stronger-than-expected economic slowdown, the pace of price growth in China is still much closer to the notion of normal than in the US and big European countries. For example, the latest data noted a PPI growth of 45.8% y/y in Germany, 41.9% in the eurozone average, 15.9% in the UK and 8.5% in the US.

Once again, China may return to the deflationary supplier label it had after 2012. The difference is that back then, this status carried negative connotations for the developed world, which tried to push up prices. The pressure on prices can be interpreted as an aggressive attempt to fight for market share.

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

5.00%

May 03, 2023

ECB

3.50%

May 04, 2023

BOE

4.25%

May 11, 2023

SNB

1.50%

Jun 22, 2023

RBA

3.60%

Apr 04, 2023

BOC

4.50%

Apr 12, 2023

RBNZ

4.75%

May 24, 2023

BOJ

-0.10%

Apr 28, 2023

CBR

7.50%

Apr 28, 2023

RBI

6.50%

Apr 03, 2023

PBOC

3.65%

BCB

13.75%

May 03, 2023

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U.S. 30Y	3.644	-0.000	-0.01%
U.S. 5Y	3.4075	-0.0005	-0.01%
U.S. 3M	4.6645	-0.0255	-0.54%
US 10Y T-Note	116.11	+0.12	+0.11%
Euro Bund	137.75	+0.71	+0.52%
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Apple	160.25	+1.32	+0.83%
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Is China Spreading Disinflation Again?

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