It has been a long time since I provided an update on Bitcoin (see here). Back then (early June 2021), I was looking for a new bull run, which surely materialized, but it fell short of the ideal target of ~$85K.
All we got was $69K five months later. Regardless, I view the cryptocurrency as close to a new bull run, and now like then, I would like to share my Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) insights with you more regularly so you all can hopefully get to profit from it.
Namely, as I have shown (see here), BTC had most likely completed a leading diagonal (LD) in August and had been correcting since then. I was looking for the correction to target $20000+/-1000 with an ideal target of $19387. The cryptocurrency bottomed on September 7 at $18559, which is well within the accepted 5% margin of error. Since that low, BTC has rallied to >$22K. As long as that September low holds, I few today’s high as (grey) W-i of W-3/c with W-ii now underway. See Figure 1 below. Thus, there are technically enough waves in place to consider the (green) wave-2/b complete and wave-3/c to ideally $37000+/-1000K underway.
Figure 1. Bitcoin daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.
Since BTC has essentially behaved as expected for many weeks, with several nuances and details that cannot be exactly forecasted (nobody has all the answers), I maintain a bullish stance until proven otherwise. At this stage, all the Bulls must push Bitcoin’s price back above the August high to tell us the correction is likely over (orange and blue arrows). Conversely, BTC will have to drop below the recent $18.5K low, with a severe warning to the Bulls below $19.5K, to tell us it still wants to revisit $12K.