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Indian Rupee Gained Against The US Dollar

By Omi CurrencyForexNov 19, 2013 12:25AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/indian-rupee-gained-against-the-us-dollar-192384
Indian Rupee Gained Against The US Dollar
By Omi Currency   |  Nov 19, 2013 12:25AM ET
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USD/INR: The Indian rupee gained against the US dollar on Monday as per our expectations supported by a rally in domestic equities. Strength in rupee was mainly driven after the US Federal Reserve’s chairperson nominee Janet Yellen on Friday said that she would continue the current monetary stimulus program. Sensex rose 459.73 points, or 2.25%, to 20,859.15, while the National Stock Exchange’s broader 50-share Nifty index jumped or 132.85 points, or 2.19%, to 6,189.


Meanwhile, state governments have taken a rigid position on protecting their autonomy and revenues with regards to implementation of GST - goods and services tax. The states have decided to oppose the inclusion of petrol and liquor under GST and want a formal mechanism for compensation for revenue losses because of GST to be a part of the constitution amendment Bill. The position of the states also comes as a blow to industry which was looking forward to moving to a unified tax regime. The Confederation of Indian Industry has said that around 2 percentage points of GDP will be saved if GST is implemented.

The US dollar recovered some ground against major currencies except the yen after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said he was growing more and more hopeful that the U.S. economy is improving and added fiscal uncertainties may no longer be dragging down recovery as in recent months. The positive comments coming from a renowned dove like Dudley meant that Fed policy makers are slowly tilting in favor of the QE Taper. USD recovered against the EUR and the pound following Dudley’s comments.

However, gains in the USD were restricted due to soft housing data. National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index came in unchanged in November at 54, missing analysts' calls for an uptick to 55 this month. The USD/INR is likely to open flat today. Much of the rebound in rupee was mainly driven by RBI governor’s comments on dollar demand from oil importers and Jenet Yellen’s dovish statements. The USD/INR is likely to test 62.70 levels today.

EUR/INR: The EUR fell against the INR, however losses were capped after EURUSD pair rose to near two week high levels during the European session. The euro zone’s trade surplus widened more-than-expected in September, official data showed on Monday. The current account surplus narrowed to a surplus of 13.7 billion Euros ($18.5 billion) in September, following an upwardly revised EUR17.9 billion surplus in August. Widening of the EU trade surplus in 2013 can be attributed to record high unemployment and resulting fall inflation. We believe the EUR rose mainly due to prevailing risk-on sentiment after dovish comments Yellen. The single currency shrugged off rate cut worries and even outperformed the Pound. German Zew survey Economic sentiment for the month of November is likely to rise to 54.0 from the previous month’s reading of 52.8. Rise in Zew Survey indicators will be supportive for the EUR. EU construction output is likely to have negligible impact on the EUR/USD pair. Overall the outlook for the EUR/INR stays bearish. The pair is likely to test 83.50 levels this week


GBP/INR: The pound remained near three-week highs against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as speculation the Federal Reserve will decide to maintain the level of its monthly asset purchases for the time being continued to weigh on the greenback. Separately, market sentiment improved after China outlined a series of broad economic reforms late Friday, including the easing of the one-child policy and opening the way for more private investment in state-controlled industries. No major data is due out of UK or US today. We expect GBP to trade strong against the INR and USD. The GBP/INR is trading near support level of 100.25. The pair is likely to rise to 100.68 levels today.


JPY/INR: THe yen gained against the USD on Monday despite positive comments on US economy from the renowned US Fed policy maker, Bank of New York President William C. Dudley. The dollar was also weighed down by soft US housing sector data National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index came in unchanged in November at 54, missing analysts' calls for an uptick to 55 this month. The USD/JPY pair is trading below the 100 level at the time of writing. US and European stock indices hit record high levels yesterday. Any correction in equities would be somewhat supportive for the yen . Given that the USD/INR is likely to open flat, we expect the JPY/INR to strengthen tracking gains in the yen against the USD. Losses in the JPY/INR are likely to be capped around 62.00 levels.

Indian Rupee Gained Against The US Dollar
 

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Indian Rupee Gained Against The US Dollar

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Comments (4)
Kiran Jain
Kiran Jain Feb 07, 2021 9:01PM ET
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gbpinr can break the higest lavel in near days .and can breakout lavels upwords
Kiran Jain
Kiran Jain Feb 07, 2021 8:57PM ET
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I think most volatile pair is gbpinr and usd INR first 30- 60 minutes wait n watch then to switch to market according to movment
SHANTILAL TAMBE
SHANTILAL TAMBE Jul 12, 2020 7:18PM ET
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I have cell Jpyinr 69.79 plz suggest
Bhayani Dilip
Bhayani Dilip Feb 08, 2019 1:51AM ET
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hello sir
 
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