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Inching Higher

Published 06/24/2022, 02:37 AM

Despite putting in the groundwork for a swing low we are still not seeing a whole lot of demand for building a rally off the lows. There should be more upside in the tank, but once it reaches congestion from May I wouldn't be surprised if the rally stalls out - which would probably be enough to push the indices well out of an oversold condition. 

With respect to the S&P, we had a new 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume to go with the relative outperformance of the index against the Russell 2000.  

SPX Daily Chart

The NASDAQ is in the process of challenging the May swing lows without any real injection of volume. Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is enjoying a new 'buy' trigger for On-Balance-Volume to go with the relative performance gains against the S&P. 

COMPQ Daily Chart

Finally, the Russell 2000 also comes up against resistance of its May swing low, to bring up its first challenge. Technicals for this index are firmly net negative.

IWM Daily Chart

The rallies off the bottom are off to a slow start and it would only take one bad sell-off day to undo the work of the past week. I would have liked to have seen more conviction in the buying given the heavily oversold state of the market, but I suspect market participants are expecting more downside.

Latest comments

$215 a share times 14 X equals 3010. That’s if we are lucky to do $215 a share in the S&P. So right now we are 20 to 25% still to the downside. And again that’s assuming if the S&P can pull out $215 per share. Earnings revisions will be coming down in tsunami‘s across-the-board, except for the energy industry which is the best buy the dip scenario you could ever want. Oil down 20% in one week over a gimmick $.18 tax break. That totals $28 for three months per vehicle. Does nothing. And most importantly what I’m about to say is why Voyles going to $200 a barrel. When you have an administration at war with fossil fuels, oil goes higher inflation goes higher. Idea logs never change, and that’s what you have right now and they’re telling you that openly that they’re trying to get rid of fossil fuels. It’s common sense. So these are my trays and what should be done. That’s what we have for at least another 2 1/2 years. BUY ENERGY and SPY PUTS
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