Crude oil prices bounced after the IMF upgraded the global growth forecast for the year as vaccinations become the driving force for hundreds of millions of people. Positive economic growth is likely to increase energy consumption.
Crude prices also found support from uncertainty over nuclear talks with Iran.
US and Iranian talks began on Tuesday in Vienna to restore the 2015 nuclear deal. An official said that talks were "constructive," but the Biden administration cautioned that no immediate breakthroughs were anticipated. However, according to the Goldman Sachs) report, Iranian oil supply to the market will not be a shock and a complete return will not take place at least until next year.
Meanwhile, increasing OPEC crude oil production is bearish for crude prices. OPEC Mar crude production rose +300,000 BPD to 25.330 million BPD.
As per the latest API report, US crude supplies fell by 2.62 million bbl and gasoline stockpiles rose by 4.55 million bbl last week. The market will get more direction from the weekly EIA report today. The consensus is for Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories to fall -2.0 million bbl.
As per the last report, US crude oil inventories as of Mar. 26 were +5.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were -4.2% below the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were +3.9% above the 5-year average.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs rose by +6 rigs in the week ended Mar. 26 to a 10-3/4 month high of 324 rigs, well above August's 15-year low of 172 rigs.
Speculators have cut both long and short positions in crude oil. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended Mar. 30, net long for crude oil futures jumped by 8,255 contracts to 531,310 for the week. The speculative long position fell by 11,857 contracts, while shorts declined by 20,112 contracts.
WTI Crude oil future contracts are likely to face stiff resistance near $62.90-64.30, while it may find an immediate support base near 50 days EMA $59.30 and 100 days EMA at $55.37