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iFOREX Daily Analysis : May 26,2017

Published 05/26/2017, 05:31 AM
Updated 09/16/2019, 09:25 AM

The dollar continues to lose ground against most major currencies on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve disappointed market expectations for tightening monetary policy.

The minutes revealed that some Fed members said that further signs would need to show that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary, prior to future rate hikes.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 234,000 in the week ended May 18. Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to rise by 5,000 to 238,000 for the week ended May 18.

In Asia the yen gained on Friday after national consumer prices came in as expected and made a fourth straight gain, while the pound dropped on concerns about commodity prices and national polls next month and ahead of long holiday weekend coming up in the U.S. with markets shut on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.

On Friday, the U.S. will close the week with data on durable goods orders and a revised data on first quarter growth and consumer sentiment.

GBP/USD

Sterling fell on Friday after a poll showed a narrowing lead for British Prime Minister Theresa May over her opposition ahead of elections next month.

In a sign that the June 8 election could be more closely contested than previously thought, a YouGov poll published on Thursday showed that the opposition Labour Party had cut the lead of May's Conservatives to five points.

Sterling fell 0.5 percent to $1.2884 , pulling further away from its May 18 peak of $1.3048, the pound's strongest level since September last year.

Data from the U.S. will be in the spotlight today, including durable goods orders, a revised data on first quarter growth and consumer sentiment.

GBP/USD Chart Pivot: 1.2925 Support: 1.2835 1.28 1.2785 Resistance: 1.2925 1.2945 1.297 Scenario 1: short positions below 1.2925 with targets at 1.2835 & 1.2800 in extension. Scenario 2: above 1.2925 look for further upside with 1.2945 & 1.2970 as targets. Comment: as long as 1.2925 is resistance, likely decline to 1.2835.

Gold

The price of gold is fluctuating within a tight range between $1249 and $1258 in the past two trading sessions, supported by possible changes concerning the path of U.S. interest rate hikes and a slowdown in U.S. economic activity in the first quarter.

The rise in gold was capped by somewhat better than expected data on U.S. jobless claims released on Thursday

Gold traders are now shifting their attention towards Friday’s economic reports from the U.S. as they try to assess further signs showing that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary, prior to future rate hikes.

Gold Chart Pivot: 1253.5 Support: 1253.5 1251 1248 Resistance: 1259.5 1263 1265 Scenario 1: long positions above 1253.50 with targets at 1259.50 & 1263.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 1253.50 look for further downside with 1251.00 & 1248.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.

WTI Oil

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries renewed an agreement to cut crude-oil supplies into March 2018, in an attempt to raise prices despite soaring output from U.S. producers.

With over a dozen other countries expected to join the cartel's efforts, the agreement is likely to cut off about 2% of the world's oil supply through March 2018.

Despite the positive announcement, crude oil prices plunged 5 percent as investors appeared to be betting on longer or larger supply curbs.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) warned that the biggest risk to oil markets was what would happen next year, at the end of the OPEC-led production cut.

Data frmo Baker Hughes on active oil rigs will be in focus today, as data from last week marked an 18th weekly rise in a row

WTI Oil Chart Pivot: 49.4 Support: 48.05 47.65 47.05 Resistance: 49.4 49.9 50.55 Scenario 1: short positions below 49.40 with targets at 48.05 & 47.65 in extension. Scenario 2: above 49.40 look for further upside with 49.90 & 50.55 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

US 500

The main U.S. stock indices surged on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs, following gains in the consumer discretionary sector after strong reports from Best Buy and other retailers.

The reports follow mixed results this reporting period from other retailers, some of which continue to be hurt by Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

The S&P energy index limited the rise, after dropping by 1.8 percent following a nearly 5 percent drop in crude oil prices

Attention is now turned towards Friday’s revised data on U.S. growth, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.

US 500 Chart Pivot: 2406 Support: 2406 2400 2394 Resistance: 2420 2425 2430 Scenario 1: long positions above 2406.00 with targets at 2420.00 & 2425.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2406.00 look for further downside with 2400.00 & 2394.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum. Prices are ranging within a bullish channel.

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