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iFOREX Daily Analysis : May 25,2017

Published 05/25/2017, 05:31 AM
Updated 09/16/2019, 09:25 AM

The dollar gave away most of its recent gains on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve disappointed the hawkish policy expectations in the market, while the euro edged back up toward a 6-1/2-month high.

Fed policymakers commented that they should hold off on raising interest rates until they see evidence that a recent economic slowdown was transitory, the minutes from their last policy meeting showed on Wednesday.

The Canadian dollar stood near a one-month high against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Canada gave a more positive assessment of the economy than what was expected.

The central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday as anticipated, but noted strong spending by Canadians along with a housing boom and job growth.

For today, The UK is to publish revised data on first quarter growth, as well as preliminary data on business investment and later in the day, the U.S. is to publish the weekly report in jobless claims.

On Friday, the U.S. will close the week with data on durable goods orders and a revised data on first quarter growth and consumer sentiment.

EUR/USD

The euro gained against the dollar on Wednesday, trading close to 6-1/2 month highs, following comments from some Fed members that further signs would need to show that weakness in the first-quarter was temporary, prior to future rate hikes.

The minutes indicated that the Fed will be very cautious toward further interest rate hikes, adding significant pressure on the dollar.

Employment data will be in focus for today, and for Friday U.S. growth report, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment will be in the spotlight.

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EUR/USD Chart Pivot: 1.12 Support: 1.12 1.117 1.1145 Resistance: 1.1265 1.128 1.13 Scenario 1: long positions above 1.1200 with targets at 1.1265 & 1.1280 in extension. Scenario 2: below 1.1200 look for further downside with 1.1170 & 1.1145 as targets. Comment: the RSI broke above a bearish trend line.

Gold

The price of gold gained on Wednesday after the Fed minutes hinted possible changes concerning the path of U.S. interest rate hikes, following the recent batch of economic data which showed a slowdown in U.S. economic activity in the first quarter.

U.S. economic growth, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rose by annualized rate of just 0.7% for the first three months of 2017. It was the slowest period of first-quarter economic growth since 2014.

Gold traders are now shifting their attention towards Friday’s revised data on U.S. growth, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.

Gold Chart Pivot: 1257.5 Support: 1257.5 1255 1251.5 Resistance: 1265 1268 1270 Scenario 1: long positions above 1257.50 with targets at 1265.00 & 1268.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 1257.50 look for further downside with 1255.00 & 1251.50 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

WTI Oil

Crude oil prices continue to rise, trading close to five-week highs on Wednesday, ahead of an OPEC meeting due on Thursday that is expected to extend output cuts into 2018, adding at least nine additional months.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended the day approximately 0.19% higher at $51.49 per barrel.

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Further support came from the Energy Information Administration data, which showed U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected in the previous week, extending the drop for a sixth-straight week.

For today, all eyes are on the Vienna meeting where a decision by OPEC and allied producers is due, regarding the deadline on oil output cuts.

WTI Oil Chart Pivot: 51 Support: 51 50.56 50.15 Resistance: 52.2 52.65 52.95 Scenario 1: long positions above 51.00 with targets at 52.20 & 52.65 in extension. Scenario 2: below 51.00 look for further downside with 50.56 & 50.15 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

US 500

The main U.S. stock indices ended up slightly on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high close, after minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting showed policymakers might follow a more cautious approach regarding future interest rate hikes.

According to the May meeting minutes, they agreed they should hold off on raising interest rates until they knew a recent U.S. economic slowdown was temporary.

Shares of Banks fell following the statement, as they tend to benefit from higher borrowing rates.

The Dow Jones was up 0.36 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.25 percent, and the Nasdaq added 0.40 percent to its value.

Attention is now turned towards Friday’s revised data on U.S. growth, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.

US 500 Chart Pivot: 2396 Support: 2396 2387 2379 Resistance: 2430 2430 2450 Scenario 1: long positions above 2396.00 with targets at 2420.00 & 2430.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2396.00 look for further downside with 2387.00 & 2379.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.

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