The US Dollar traded lower following the US Federal Reserve meeting, where it was agreed to raise the interest rates by 0.25% - a move widely expected in the market. The US Dollar Index (USDX), which represents the US Dollar against six other major currencies lost 0.7% and broke its 6 days streak of rising values.
Gold traded higher following the Fed meeting, rising significantly for the first time in almost 3 weeks. Oil traded lower as gasoline stockpiles in the US were again higher, despite crude stockpiles being lower.
Bitcoin retraced from Tuesday’s high, while Ethereum continued gaining ground. Ripple traded again close to a third higher than on Tuesday and over 100% up compared to last week. Interactive Brokers, which is a major brokerage firm with access to future exchanges, announced that by the end of this week it would allow its customers also to place short bets on Bitcoin futures at the Cboe and later CME – however with a margin requirement of 5$ for every Dollar short bringing the capital requirement of shorting one Bitcoin to around $85,000 at current prices.
Equities in most sectors traded higher in the US, with the exception of bank and other financial stocks as consumer inflation data was below expectations, possibly to some extent limiting the Fed’s ability for future rate hikes.
On Thursday Germany and the EU publish PMI data, France and Italy inflation data. The UK is set to release retail sales statistics, while Switzerland releases its Producer and Import Price Index.
Three central banks in Europe – the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are set to announce their interest rate decisions. On Thursday import/export prices statistics, jobless claims, retail sales, business inventories and M2 monetary supply figures will be published in the US.
EUR/USDThe Federal Reserve raised the interest rates as expected by 0.25% on Wednesday. However this decision was made with a 7-2 vote by the board – which did not had more than one dissenting vote in such decisions for over a year. The Fed reiterated that they see three rate hikes coming up in 2018 despite positive economic growth. Consumer prices were up by 0.1% less than expected – inflation is one key aspect for central banks to decide on rates policies. On these news the Dollar fell against the Euro by the biggest amount in almost 3 weeks.
On Thursday Germany and the EU publish PMI data, France and Italy inflation data and the ECB is set to make an interest rate decision.
In the US import/export prices statistics, jobless claims, retail sales, business inventories and M2 monetary supply figures will be published.
Pivot: 1.1785
Support: 1.1785 1.175 1.173
Resistance: 1.183 1.186 1.1875
Scenario 1: long positions above 1.1785 with targets at 1.1830 & 1.1860 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 1.1785 look for further downside with 1.1750 & 1.1730 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Gold rose by almost 1% on Wednesday following Janet Yellen’s likely last interest rate decision as the chair of the Federal Reserve. The move was supported by a weaker Dollar and significantly lower US Treasury yields. This is the first move upwards with such magnitude gold made in over 3 weeks. Following Consumer Price Index statistics on Wednesday on Thursday import and export price data will be published. Other economic indicators to be released such as retail sales could further help understand the current US business climate.
Pivot: 1249.5
Support: 1249.5 1245 1240
Resistance: 1260.7 1265 1269
Scenario 1: long positions above 1249.50 with targets at 1260.70 & 1265.00 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 1249.50 look for further downside with 1245.00 & 1240.05 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
Oil traded lower for the second day in a row as statistics from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) even though crude oil stockpiles were 5.1 million barrels lower than the week before, gasoline stocks were up by 5.7 million barrels which raised demand concerns. Even though according to the OPEC, its member’s output fell in November, it is estimated that global (non-OPEC) output would rise in 2018. On Friday Baker Hughes releases the number of operating oil rigs in the US.
Pivot: 57.05
Support: 56.15 55.8 55.3
Resistance: 57.05 57.55 58.05
Scenario 1: short positions below 57.05 with targets at 56.15 & 55.80 in extension.
Scenario 2: above 57.05 look for further upside with 57.55 & 58.05 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
US stock indices traded higher on the Federal Reserve statement about its future rate policy. Especially biotech (US Biotech ETF +0.95%) stocks were trading higher, whereas bank (US Banks ETF -1.28%) and financial (US Financials ETF -1.31%) stocks suffered losses. Nike (NYSE:NKE) closed 3.43% higher as quarterly earnings are due to be released on the 21st this month.
On Thursday import/export prices statistics, jobless claims, retail sales, business inventories and M2 monetary supply figures will be published in the US.
Pivot: 2660
Support: 2660 2653.5 2649
Resistance: 2680 2685 2690
Scenario 1: long positions above 2660.00 with targets at 2680.00 & 2685.00 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 2660.00 look for further downside with 2653.50 & 2649.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.