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I See Oil Prices Falling Below $40 Per Barrel

Published 10/04/2019, 04:22 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening. Our October 2018 gold price predictions are still playing out accurately – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.

Today, we want to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system expectations for crude oil. In a research post we made back in July, we warned that oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking lower in November. Ultimately, oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019.

Monthly Crude Oil

Watch This Support

We believe the support level near $50.50 will act as a temporary level of support over the next 3-to-10+ days before a moderate price breakdown below this level begins. Our expectations for November 2019 are that oil prices may fall to levels below $45 ppb on a deeper downward price move, yet will recover to levels near $47 near December 2019/January 2020.

Daily Crude Oil

We also think that the ultimate target for crude prices is to levels below $40 ppb and that price may attempt to make a move toward these level as early as January 2020. Our ADL predictive modeling system has shown us the path for oil prices and, so far, the real price has mirrored this expectation almost perfectly – even the high price in September aligned with our expected high price near $60.

Weakness should dominate in late October and early November – carrying all the way through most of November. So pay attention to the ADL chart above and our July 10 predictions. Oil will target levels below $40 by late December 2019 or early January 2020.

Weekly Crude Oil

All it will take is for this $50.50 support level to be tested and breached for the next price move to begin. Be prepared for the volatility that may hit oil prices near this critical support level and be prepared for the next move to levels near $44~47.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive if handled properly.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding, not only in metals and stocks but globally and that some of these supercycles will last for years.

Latest comments

30 dollars first before going up
Oil on uptrend to at least 75.
fake
I 100 percent agreed with your analysis and have been only playing shorts since weeks on each bounce.
"Our ADL predictive modeling system has shown us the path for oil prices and, so far, the real price has mirrored this expectation almost perfectly – even the high price in September aligned with our expected high price near $60." It predicted an attack on Saudi oil plant?
Unless OPEC acts again with another strategic cut then I dont see this rising however a jump in equities could drag crude higher as well.
oil has been dragged down by lower equities. usually when trump tweets about trade war, oil and equities follow.
this guys natural gas articles and predictions are just as bad. oil has found a temporary bottom.
I see oil going much higher from here... looks like 60$ is in the card for the coming 2 weeks
he's probably wrong again, his models that aren't accurate
Hes selling puts on uso
True
i see It going io from here to 70...
Great analysis ....
47 - 64, nice, tight range there....
Rate cuts, geopolitical issues, dead shale, and years of reduced reserve replenishing will prove otherwise.
doubt that
dipping now lol
I really really doubt that !!!
I see price rising to $75 per barrel
Too speculative!
I see price rising to $75 per barrel
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