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Huge Uncertainty

Published 10/31/2022, 03:11 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Uncertainty sums up the feeling in the markets at the moment and that is perfectly highlighted by the moves seen on the opening day of the week.

Equity markets in Asia were a mixed bag, with the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng making decent losses, while those elsewhere made steady gains. Europe is slightly in the green as we move towards the close, while the U.S. is a sea of red, with tech shares being hit particularly hard.

There’s going to be a lot to take in this week, from the Fed on Wednesday, to the jobs report on Friday, BoE on Wednesday and earnings season. Perhaps it’s not surprising to see some jitters creeping back in.

A Troubling Period For Eurozone

The data today did not help to settle the nerves. Europe is facing a highly uncertain few months as it navigates an uncertain winter in which a long bout of cold weather could take the economy down. And even before, the cracks are not just appearing, they’re getting larger by the day.

Inflation hit a new record high of 10.7%, well ahead of expectations, while the core reading unexpectedly jumped to 5%. Meanwhile, growth in the third quarter almost ground to a halt at 0.2% and that’s unlikely to significantly improve any time soon. Needless to say, the hardest days lie ahead, and the bloc will be hoping that efforts to fill gas stocks and some favorable weather could see them through the winter. The European Central Bank, on the other hand, is beyond being able to cross its fingers and hope for the best.

Restrictions Weigh On Chinese PMIs Once More

The day got off to a tough start after China released PMI data that was unsurprisingly poor. The data was naturally hampered by COVID restrictions, but that has become a persistent headwind for the economy and it’s unlikely to change any time soon. What’s more, the weakness was widespread, and while infrastructure stimulus may alleviate some of this, it’s not going to make it go away.

Bitcoin Loses Momentum

Bitcoin is off more than 1% on Monday following a pretty disappointing weekend. The recovery in the price over the last week has seen it climb back above $20,000 for the first time in a few weeks, but it’s already struggling on the momentum front. A move back below $20,000 wouldn’t be anything to be concerned about though. As we’ve seen in recent months, it’s largely fluctuated around this level rather than being overly sensitive to it.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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Sonye Henry
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