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How Will Oil Price Behave In 2020?

Published 01/17/2020, 10:57 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:32 AM

It is a difficult question to answer.

However we can see that the U.S. production keeps rising (despite of some disappointing economic returns on shale) even with a significant drop on the oil rig count.

U.S. oil production vs. oil rig count

Source: Federal Reserve of Dallas

The EIA also predicts that the oil prices will be above the 2019 average (almost at the same level) as the demand tends to grow a bit higher than the production.

Oil production and consumption forecast

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

The global economy currently works on a less uncertainty environment especially after the commercial agreement (phase 1) between USA and China, which is crucial for the oil consumption growth.

Even so we may be very close to the end of the current and larger economic cycle expansion we have ever seen (there are some concerning signals which point to that such as the current corporate debt level and flat corporate earnings, central banks negative interest rates, massive capital injection through QE etc.) which may affect the world economy and therefore the oil demand in a near future.

Moreover, we will have the president election in USA and we still may see geopolitical tensions increasing during this year which may bring an important volatility on oil prices.

So, what is your bet?

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