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How To Position For The Year Ahead

Published 12/06/2017, 02:34 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

For the ninth year, we present our FX Top Trades for the coming year. For 2018 we focus on providing directional views on key currency pairs. As a foundation for our views and trades, we consider a range of themes that we have outlined elsewhere and focus here on the FX implications of these.

Our 2018 themes are:
- Theme 1: Cyclical support for carry - but vol is low
- Theme 2: Policy normalisation
- Theme 3: A 'new' Fed
- Theme 4: Scandi housing fragility
- Theme 5: Currency vulnerability

Our key directional views and associated trades are:
- Trade 1: Short EUR/NOK via 3M bearish seagull
- Trade 2: Long NOK/SEK spot
- Trade 3: Long EUR/USD via 12M bullish seagull
- Trade 4: Short EUR/GBP via 6M bearish put spread
- Trade 5: Long G10 volatility via bought 12M USD/SEK straddle

To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below:

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