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Gold’s $2,000 Comeback Slowed By Logic-Defying Dollar Strength

By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com)CommoditiesAug 21, 2020 04:29AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/golds-2000-comeback-slowed-by-logicdefying--dollar-strength-200534797
Gold’s $2,000 Comeback Slowed By Logic-Defying Dollar Strength
By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com)   |  Aug 21, 2020 04:29AM ET
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Back in June, even the naysayers would have privately admitted that they expected gold to hit $2,000 an ounce at some point this year, if not next. What even the bulls didn’t anticipate was it getting there in just a month. That amazing outperformance has now become gold’s bane.

As the yellow metal tries to claw back the losses of this week, that took it down $67 between Wednesday and Thursday—after an earlier meltdown of $93 during the “Black Tuesday” slump of last week—the argument being used against gold is that it had rallied too much, too fast. 

Bears point to a metal that had picked up $630, or 43%, from March 16 lows of $1,459 to reach as high as $2,089 on Aug 7. For a more recent example, they cite the jump from $1,939 on Aug. 13 to nearly $2,025 on Aug. 18. 

Those who are long gold, meanwhile, say its stupendous rally is based on valuation and inflation growth projected from trillions of dollars of U.S. and other national spending to fight the coronavirus pandemic. They argue that the massive U.S. debt creation, especially, and dollar debasement in coming years more than justify $2,000 gold or the near-term target of $2,300 many have. More ambitious targets begin at $3,000 and work their way to $5,000, though not even the most ardent bull is expecting such pricing anytime soon. 

The most pertinent debate on gold now is what it’ll take for it to regain its $2,000 perch and, alternatively, what could extend the pain of its bulls.  

Gold Needs Upside Strength On Charts 

The answer to the first question—what’s needed for the clawback—is fairly simple: upside strength on the charts.

The second point—what could trigger more downside—is a little more complicated. Gold bulls are being frustrated by the sudden resurgence in U.S. Treasury yields, which until two weeks ago seemed doomed to sink deeper into negative territory, and a rebound in the dollar, which seems to have taken an inexplicable life of its own. 

Let’s take a look first at the required upside for gold. 

Investing.com’s technicals show that the spot price of gold, which reflects trades in bullion, needs to at least get to around $1,970 and hold to that level to move higher. 

From there, the challenge will be making the pre-$2,000 leap to $1,990. 

Sunil Kumar Dixit, an independent chartist on gold, concurs with our views.  

“More precisely, the market needs conviction that the spot price can hold above $1,968. This is the very first condition for a sustainable rebound,” says Dixit. “Next sits the resistance at $,1990, the concurrence of descending trendline on the chart.”

XAU/USD Weekly
XAU/USD Weekly

Chart courtesy: Sunil Kumar Dixit

Pablo Piovano at FX Street also believes that gold looks to regain $2,000/oz. In a note written during Friday's afternoon session of gold trade in Asia Piovano wrote:  

“The ounce troy of gold is slowly recovering the ground lost in the wake of Wednesday’s sharp pullback,” 

“Thursday’s uptick in combination with rising open interest favours extra gains in the short-term horizon, always with the next target at the key $2,000 mark,” he added. 

Downside Risks As Real As $2,000 Target

But there are dangers too that gold prices may fall short of the $2,000 target and open a sharper break lower than seen thus far this week. 

“Caution is warranted as to how traders will react to the metal reaching $1,968,” Dixit said.

“If it presses on to $1,990, buyers may look for a high of $2,008 next. But failure to hold at this level can push the price back to $1,924-$1,900.”

Could gold go even lower? Investing.com data shows a potential test of $1,864—the low hit by spot gold right after the Aug. 12, Black Tuesday, selloff. 

“If it tests $1,860 and bounces back to cross $2,000 and enters the bullish channel, a double-bottom can be established,” says Dixit, confirming the thesis in Investing.com data. “This potential formation will have the height of about $150, which if added to this week’s reach of $2000-2020, gives us the much anticipated $2,150 and beyond.” 

Michael Boutrous at Daily FX has a similar view. "The gold breakout remains vulnerable on the back of this stretch—from a trading standpoint, be on the lookout for downside exhaustion,” he said in a Friday post.

“Above $1,795, (the) price is indeed heading higher with a topside breach above $2,033 needed to mark resumption. Subsequent topside resistance objective at 2105 and 2179.”

Now, let’s examine the down-drivers of gold: U.S. Treasury yields and the Dollar Index. 

Dollar Index Weekly TTM
Dollar Index Weekly TTM

Interestingly, extreme short positions held on both by traders until recently were what gave gold its original 30% price gain for this year, taking the shiny metal beyond $2,000. Their turn-around since has become the antithesis to gold’s rally. 

Treasuries, Dollar Rally Have No Staying Power 

According to the forex industry grapevine, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note’s snapback this week was sparked by the Federal Reserve’s unwillingness to set a control on the yield curve of bonds. The Fed made its decision known in the minutes of its July meeting released Wednesday—which became the catalyst for the twin rallies in yields and the dollar and spelled doom for gold. 

“Many participants judged that yield caps and targets were not warranted in the current environment,” the minutes concluded, citing the costs and risks  associated with such practice, aside from the difficulty of micro-managing the controls in day-to-day operations.  

Aside from that teeny fact against yield caps and targets, the Fed all but issued a damning indictment on U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. The central bank also reaffirmed its intent to keep interest rates at near-zero and virtually print as much as money as necessary through its limitless balance sheet to help the United States see off the virus. These factors, under ordinary circumstances, should have seen gold flying higher in the $2,000 territory. 

Yet, traders chose to do the opposite, sending yields on the 10-year note up 2% on Wednesday. The Dollar Index—which has absolutely nothing positive in the near-term going for the currency—rose by an amusing full point to reach above 93 on Wednesday. It has clambered lower since but remained stubbornly above 92.65 in Friday’s Asian trade despite weekly U.S. jobless claims coming in higher than expected.  

Japan and European macroeconomic data have also been better than U.S. stats over the past 24 hours, making the euro and yen better bets against the dollar. Yet, the greenback’s inexplicable strength continues. Could it be that the traders keeping the dollar artificially propped expect Fed Chair Jay Powell to call them the next time he makes a decision on Treasury caps or controls? 

Powell is due to speak at the Fed’s all-important Jackson Hole annual retreat next, delivering his take on the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework Review, between next Thursday and Friday. Perhaps that’s what’s needed to bring dollar bulls back to their senses.

Disclaimer: Barani Krishnan does not hold a position in the commodities or securities he writes about.

Gold’s $2,000 Comeback Slowed By Logic-Defying Dollar Strength
 

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Gold’s $2,000 Comeback Slowed By Logic-Defying Dollar Strength

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Comments (23)
CC Beckt
CC Beckt Aug 24, 2020 12:47PM ET
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given that any significant strength in the dollar in the short term is bearish for stocks, their support of it should be short lived. it should be sufficient to drive weak-kneed precious metal speculators out of the market.
Jay West
Jay West Aug 23, 2020 5:15PM ET
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Any thoughts on bank stocks like BAC this week?
Easy Trade
Easy Trade Aug 23, 2020 4:17PM ET
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All the inflation indicators are showing that inflation has not significantly been impacted by all the Feds actons, so dollar bulls are simply trading the available facts. There is enough confidence in the US central banking system to keep the US economy bubbling by sending vast amounts of money into the markets/system, paired with the fact that inflation indicators aren't even showing 2% this year, and you have your answer. The speculators are being creamed by raw data that doesn't support their thesis. Out of control inflation hasn't yet arrived, even if we feel like it should/has. The charts don't show it.
Easy Trade
Easy Trade Aug 23, 2020 4:17PM ET
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Investors just arent interested in selling. People want to build wealth, and they see robust action by this administration and the central bankers are extremely supportive. That's really bullish.
Easy Trade
Easy Trade Aug 23, 2020 4:17PM ET
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And lastly, Algos have no sentiment. They only trade on data. Good data, bad data, doesn't matter. Only thing that matters is that it's official data. There are more algos running the market now than ever, and they are all built to generate wealth, not sell.
Tom Jones
Tom Jones Aug 23, 2020 4:17PM ET
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Easy Trade You assume the only way to build wealth is to buy, and that’s certainly been true since 2009 (ex pre-Christmas Eve 2018 and covid) during this Fed-induced bull market. However, HFs can generate tons of wealth by going net short using algos based on the same official data you refer to. When you say “investors want to build wealth”, assume you mean retail, since good HFs like Rennaissance make me money no matter which direction the market moves. Portfolio insurance (long puts) is cheap right now cuz vol is so low and complacency is so high. It’s worth buying some, imo.
Yisroel David
Yisroel David Aug 23, 2020 2:22AM ET
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Vankers arent held responsible and that allows cor these games to contivue. So much of this ******is ludicrous and will destroy the little guy while the big svhots wont be held accountable.
Berat Arda Dedekoca
Berat Arda Dedekoca Aug 22, 2020 7:55AM ET
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Gold rules guys .. 👍
dixon pinfold
dixon pinfold Aug 21, 2020 10:37PM ET
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There's technicals, yes, and there's treasuries, tied in as they are with inflation, the Fed, deficits, and the pandemic.  But you left out international relations.  I'm not faulting you exactly, for your discussion was decently well-rounded without mentioning them.  And that in itself is my point:  all things considered, the waters of international relations have been not far from glassy smooth for months, Hong Kong and the gas fields off Cyprus aside.  Not to sound like I'm cheerleading for conflict, but I daresay it won't last long.  Gold stands poised and ready for a run-up on the least diplomatic or military pretext.  This is a fact that needs little pointing out ordinarily, but right now it goes double, or triple.
Wrongway Whiplash
Wrongway Whiplash Aug 21, 2020 10:37PM ET
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Excellent point!
Rosta Pilny
Raasta Aug 21, 2020 2:01PM ET
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Not just Banks, also monthly ETF investing to indexes no matter what earnings are warping the market. I hold a lot of gold from 900/ounce and don't plan to sell for years
Ankit Shah
Ankit Shah Aug 21, 2020 11:32AM ET
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Gold best rate to enter buy @1780$-1820$.
Kumar Kapasi
Kumar Kapasi Aug 21, 2020 10:44AM ET
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Doesn't the current market rally itself defy all logic? How can the markets be at pre-pandemic levels when unemployment, GDP, PMI and all other economic parameters are at a record negative?
Golden Berg
goldenberg Aug 21, 2020 10:44AM ET
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It seems that the market is wearing MAGA hat
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 10:44AM ET
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Kumar Kapasi, nothing makes sense except the money in your checking account. Preserve that carefully when you enter these grossly-manipulated markets.
Tom Jones
Tom Jones Aug 21, 2020 10:44AM ET
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Agree, but stocks like AMZN, work/shop from home, cloud/cybersecurity and even homebuilders have thrived precisely due to covid. And all these cos are in SPY and QQQ, and worse, FAANGM stocks are so heavily weighted in both that they cause the market to conpletely distort the true economic picture.
Exchange Watchdog
Exchange Watchdog Aug 21, 2020 10:41AM ET
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We should have an ounce split, 4 to 1...
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 10:41AM ET
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EW, not a bad idea, actually.
Kalpesh Shah
Kalpesh Shah Aug 21, 2020 10:40AM ET
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Gold pulled down 1914 just after NY market opened it's ranging between 1935 and 1920
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 10:40AM ET
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Yes, Kalpesh, on the spot price.
Mac Gill
Mac Gill Aug 21, 2020 10:33AM ET
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Very detail , keep it like this, always helpful : cheers
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 10:33AM ET
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Thanks much, Mac Gill. It's appreciation from readers like you that keep me going.
Kristof Naessens
Kristof Naessens Aug 21, 2020 10:33AM ET
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I believe it's gonna pullback a little more to 1850's, after that the move up will be explosive and certainly for the miners which with the runup to 2100's are extremely undervalued, especially the juniors.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 10:33AM ET
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$3,000 gold isn't an outrageous bet anymore, Kristof.
Mac Gill
Mac Gill Aug 21, 2020 10:32AM ET
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Very detail , keep it like this, always helpful : cheers
Peter BullMarket
Peter BullMarket Aug 21, 2020 10:32AM ET
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I am looking in to a further drop bellow $1900 to add a little more gold to my portfolio. If that happen, I will add aslo more platinum and silver
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 10:32AM ET
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Add at the bottom, yes. But pick the right bottom.
Jan Skilbrei
Jan Skilbrei Aug 21, 2020 10:08AM ET
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very good article
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 10:08AM ET
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Thanks much, Jan Skilbrei. It's appreciation from readers like you that keep me going.
Keith Messmer
Keith Messmer Aug 21, 2020 8:22AM ET
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i have a concealed carry permit and carry a 357. I do this as a form of insurence, my plan c so to speak. I feel the same way about gold and silver. I dont buy it because I hope to use it, I buy because whern all else fails I know I have a plan c. There is far too much uncertenty to be able to make any firm predictions one way or the other. I have alway bought when the price drops so i view a falling price as an opportunity to strengthen my position. I dont sell my precious metals so the changes in the market dont affect my attitude toward it.
Show previous replies (2)
Thom Miller
Thom Miller Aug 21, 2020 8:22AM ET
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You might want to use some of that gold to buy yourself a spelling class. I use my gun as a Plan A, so to speak. Bang! Bang!
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 8:22AM ET
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Thom Miller  I think some typos are allowed in speed typing. Not everyone will scroll up to diligently clean up their text before submitting.
Thom Miller
Thom Miller Aug 21, 2020 8:22AM ET
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Barani Krishnan I think you’re being far too kind. Speed typing? You know as well as I do Trumpers are not known for their spelling, grammar and punctuation skills, nor anything that requires critical thinking skills, logic and common sense. Much less, speed typing! Excluding colleagues, I have a circle of family, friends, and acquaintances numbering about 60 people who I see on a frequent basis. Of that bunch, only three are Trumpers.....and they’re the only three without college degrees. Whatever the reason for their sloppy posts on this board, the perception they leave is that they are either uneducated, don’t care, or both. Either way, that does not bode well for the future of this country, especially if Trump manages another 4 years.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 8:22AM ET
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Thom Miller  I hear you, brother, I do. I was being kind :) What to do, as author and moderator, I sometimes I have to take the higher road. Anyway, hope all's working well for you.
dixon pinfold
dixon pinfold Aug 21, 2020 8:22AM ET
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Thom Miller   No one reveres good English more than I do, so I didn't mind your original snipe.  But behind your explication I detect loathsome class prejudice---as taught or reinforced at universities.   Interesting, as for quite a while students there learned that commitment to the left and rejection of the right entailed facing up to and rooting out one's snobbery (if any).  Not anymore.  Now the message is that an expensive education is the criterion of personal merit, the lack of it perfectly valid grounds for dismissing someone when your main objection is their politics.
Robert Flores
Robert Flores Aug 21, 2020 8:07AM ET
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This is just a heslthy correction for the dollar and gold. The trend will reconvene for both
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 8:07AM ET
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Uptrend will reconvene, yes. Once the Wall Street banks are done with their downtrend manipulation of gold, especially in playing up a dollar that has no business being at even the mid 92s, forget 93!
Razan Alsalem
Razan Alsalem Aug 21, 2020 6:11AM ET
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Please tell me if the gold will go up again
Golden Berg
goldenberg Aug 21, 2020 6:11AM ET
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it will go up...and it will go down...up and down, up like a seesaw. 100%
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 6:11AM ET
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Unfortunately, Razan, what goldenberg says is so true. Retail players like you get diced up by the manipulative games played by the gigantic banks, which are too big to fail, you know (a convenient excuse that allows them to do any nonsense because no matter what, regulators can't shut them down)
emad hijazi
emad hijazi Aug 21, 2020 5:45AM ET
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Thank u . by the way , i am one of those victims of "black Tuesday " . Now , I am regaining my confidence and going for another long . finger crossed.
Mehmet Aksarayli
Mehmet Aksarayli Aug 21, 2020 5:45AM ET
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Same here
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 5:45AM ET
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You need a strong stomach, Emad. Wish you the best.
Peter BullMarket
Peter BullMarket Aug 21, 2020 5:25AM ET
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I hope you are right, I loaded up the truck with gold in this pullback from $2070 to $1900
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 5:25AM ET
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Wishing you the best too, Pedro.
Adegbolade Adebote
Adegbolade Adebote Aug 21, 2020 4:33AM ET
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markets once again proving Keynes right with their irrationality
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 4:33AM ET
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Adegbolade, absolutely.
Andreas Klempin
Andreas Klempin Aug 21, 2020 4:29AM ET
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My thoughts exactly, clinging to the Dollar stubbornly at the moment is baffling amidst practically no positive indicators. Thanks for this contextualization!
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Aug 21, 2020 4:29AM ET
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I sincerely believe that at least half of the Wall Street bankers responsible for the subprime crisis should have gone to jail. Until you start jailing bankers and not letting them off with slap-on-the-wrist fines, expect pump-dump-pump games like this to continue.
Wrongway Whiplash
Wrongway Whiplash Aug 21, 2020 4:29AM ET
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Barani Krishnan  Jailing bankers would be a good place to start.
 
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