LONG TERM TREND BEARISH
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND NEUTRAL/BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND BEARISH
Since our last blog update, we saw a sharp rise after the release of the FOMC statement with gold hitting a high just above 1200, however this rally was very short-lived and pounced on as an opportunity to close longs and open new short positions.
Gold has steadily fallen since making this high, despite the escalation of the Greek situation to a full blown crisis, a scenario that should have seen gold rocket higher as a “safe haven” asset – the fact that gold has fallen sharply over the past two weeks even as equities have continued to correct sharply, suggests gold is completely unloved and going much, much lower.
We have been saying for many years that as long as equities remain well supported and continue to attract investment funds, gold will tread water at best. However, even now where equities are selling off hard and markets are in turmoil gold cannot capitalise – gold bulls are nowhere to be found and we fully expect a test and failure of 1130, with a break below this level making a drop to 1000 highly likely.
Support can be found at 1142-1145, 1131, 1124, 1100, 1085, 1045, 1000, 950, 867 and 806. A break of 1131 would be very bearish for gold and suggest a return to 1000-1050 in the first instance.
Resistance can be found at 1162, 1170, 1175, 1184, 1191-1192, 1196-1197, 1204, 1208-1210, 1215, 1220-1223, 1252-1256, 1274, 1285, 1297 and 1305-1308. After a promising move higher following the break of 1180 last year, gold has failed to break the intermediate down trend and is now heading lower again, closing in on the 2014 lows.