S&P 500: CTA buying halts at 6,925; selling accelerates below 6,500, UBS says
Gold (XAU/USD) is playing the classic "ping-pong game" inside a price triangle ranging from 3420.0 to 3300.0. For now, the precious metal is holding above the 3350.0 support but lacks the strength to challenge the major high near 3500.0 again.
The plot twist in this story was the unexpected decision by President Donald Trump to cancel the 39% tariff on gold bars over 100 ounces, which was scheduled for August 25th. If that tariff had actually gone through, it could have caused a global shake-up, favoring Asia and pushing prices even higher.
Some analysts even predicted gold hitting $3600 an ounce within three months under that scenario. But since the presidential pen changed course, the market has turned its focus back to the Federal Reserve for guidance.
In his latest speech, Jerome Powell made it clear: the Fed has not yet decided to cut interest rates. They want to see the August data (inflation and employment) before making any move. The result? The market is now pricing in an 84% chance of a cut, up from 73% last week—and that has provided a supportive cushion for gold.
Trading Volume
Here’s an important detail: the appetite for gold is shrinking. The CME shows a drop in contracts from 543k to 181k since August 13th. Options have also plummeted from 124k to 46.3k. In other words, investors are being more selective and cautious.
Supports: 3310.0 | 3180.0
Resistances: 3410.0 | 3500.0
Trading Strategies
Bullish Scenario
If it breaks and closes above 3410.0, a long position targeting 3500.0 becomes viable.
Suggested Stop Loss: 3340.0
Timeframe: 7 days or more.
Bearish Scenario
If it loses and confirms below 3310.0, short positions become interesting with a target of 3180.0.
Suggested Stop Loss: 3370.0
The gold market is in "wait-and-see" mode. It’s like an athlete at the starting line: everyone is watching the referee (the Fed) to decide when to run. Those who act without discipline might jump the gun. Those who wait for the right moment will catch the race with the right momentum.