Get 40% Off
🤯 This Tech Portfolio is up 29% YTD! Join Now to Get April’s Top PicksGet The Picks – Just 99 USD

Gold Docks In Its Box

Published 06/25/2017, 05:38 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Gold Scoreboard

Fraternize about Gold with folks here amongst Monaco's financiers and wealth managers and you'll span pretty much the same spectrum of 180° out-phase-opinions as you'll find elsewhere. A close banker buddy, and better yet a dear family friend for well over a generation says: "Well, it's dead money, isn't it." Thanks for that vote of confidence.

Fortunately there are those 'round here who instead see Gold a bit more as do many of you and I: that 'tis vastly undervalued, that when it goes, "it's really gonna go", and moreover that the stock market is a halving in waiting. Thanks for that vote of means regression. (For which the most commonly-asked one-word question being put to me is: "When?")

To be sure, as the above opening panel shows us, the "when" is as remote from the "now" as can be. Vis-à-vis this same day a year ago, Gold today finds itself -4.6% (-61 points) lower, in settling out an essentially unchanged week yesterday (Friday) at 1258. Week-after week, we've gone on ad nausea about Gold's "1240-1280 resistance zone" to the point we ought script a key for the computer to write that phrase with a single stroke.

The good news for the present is Gold's not having fallen out of that zone, price trading this past week as low as 1242 in finding support there. 'Course, the prior week, Gold only barely breached the upside 1280 boundary before again falling back. Perhaps we ought forget "support" and "resistance" and simply go with the "1240-1280 box"; indeed should you linearly regress Gold's price track for the past three months and project that rate into the future, 10 years from today we'll still find price careening about in the "1240-1280 box".

"That's hardly reassuring, mmb..."

Ah, Squire, taking a break from the private gaming tables, I see. (The lad's enchanted with there being but one zero slot on the roulette wheel rather than the more familiar two ... the player's improved odds albeit mitigated by the requisite entry fee to gain access to said tables). Similarly mitigating any directional clarity of its own is Gold, lacking of late toward tipping its hand assuredly for a move in either direction, the ongoing monotony of being box-bound continuing as we below see in the weekly bars. We've just had the fifth consecutive week of a net price change of less than 15 points:

Weekly Gold Bars & Parabolic Trends

That said, anything but monotonous is the ever-enduring divergence between the rising S&P 500 and declining Economic Barometer. In a year with the S&P 500 averaging an all-time high every week (or 23 times in 120 trading days-to-date), one ought expect the Baro to be booming. The bunch over at the Federal Open Market Committee seem to so think. Too bad most folks doesn't truly crunch the numbers. We do:

Econ Baro

As for the crunch on the precious metals during these recent weeks, 'tis comprehensively confirmed by their falling "Baby Blues", the dots which denote the consistency of day-to-day 21-day linear regression trend. Here we see for both Gold on the left and Silver on the right the textbook topping and rolling over of the blue dots from above their respective +80% horizontal levels as having been good guidance during this price fall, just as they'd been during the prior rise from mid-chart some six weeks ago:

Gold And Silver 21 Day Linear Regression

Next in drilling down into the 10-day Market Profiles, we have for Gold (left) resistors at 1269 and 1279, with supporters at 1257 and 1247. Similarly for Sister Silver (right), resistance shows at 16.75, 16.95 and 17.20, with support at 16.65:

Gold And Silver 10 Day Profile

We'll thus sum it up for this week with the stack:

The Gold Stack
Gold's Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening "Scoreboard"): 2693
Gold’s All-Time High: 1923 (06 September 2011)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 1900 (22 August 2011)
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1750-1800
On Maneuvers: 1579-1750
The Floor: 1466-1579
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
Base Camp: 1377
2017's High: 1298 (06 June)
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
Trading Resistance: 1269 / 1279
The 300-Day Moving Average: 1261 and rising
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 1259
Gold Currently: 1258, (expected daily trading range ["EDTR"]: 12 points)
Trading Support: 1257 / 1247
10-Session directional range: down to 1242 (from 1284) = -42 points or -3%
"The Box": 1240-1280
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 1218
2017's Low: 1147 (03 January)

In closing, just as Gold docks in its box, so too 'round here do many-a-massive yacht, some indeed bona fide private ships replete with active helipads. As ought be Gold, these vessels are steeped in terrific levels of wealth, admittedly making San Francisco's high technology nouveau-riche seem but paupers. And for most of these powered seaworthy palaces, their time here in the port is but temporary before moving on to the next Mediterranean safe harbour or channel island. For the yellow metal we therefore expect the same. 'Twill not remain docked in its box for perpetuity, for price's eventual regressing up just to the StateSide faux currency valuation mean shall produce more than a doubling in the market value of Gold!

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.