Breaking News
Investing Pro 0
Extended Sale! Save on premium data with Claim 60% OFF

Gold: Bullish Catalysts Looming but Not Imminent

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMTCommoditiesSep 07, 2023 02:51AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/gold-bullish-catalysts-looming-but-not-imminent-200641633
Gold: Bullish Catalysts Looming but Not Imminent
By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT   |  Sep 07, 2023 02:51AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
 
XAU/USD
+0.10%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
Gold
+0.15%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 

Gold remains in a bullish big-picture consolidation but failed to break out as the Fed quelled banking issues and the economy has avoided recession.

The market has discounted a soft landing as capital has moved out of Bonds and into equities.

Inflation expectations have begun to perk up mostly due to the rebound in Oil. 

Gold is struggling because the market has discounted a soft landing and inflation, but the kind associated with an economic rebound. Furthermore, real interest rates have moved to the highest level in nearly 15 years.

As we can see, inflation expectations and commodity prices have rebounded and are approaching their 2022 highs. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield is breaking out, which has started pulling the dollar higher. 

Gold and precious metals could struggle until the yield curve steepens above 0.00, signaling a bear steepener, which is bearish for the stock market.

A bear steepener would likely result from a continued steady increase in inflation expectations and the 10-year yield reaching 5%. 

CRB Index Chart
CRB Index Chart

The Gold market could be waiting for stagflation, which requires, in addition to inflation, rising unemployment and weak growth.

A continued rise in oil and bond yields would eventually tip the economy into stagflation territory.

The jobs market is already weakening, and note that the impact of Fed tightening, according to Apollo Global Management) will be the most severe in Q2 and Q3 2024.

Meanwhile, gold and silver stocks continue to struggle as metals prices have failed to break out and cost pressures remain. Sentiment has turned negative in recent months, and valuations have declined further.  

As I wrote last month, this is a time to research companies poised to benefit from the inevitable breakout and new bull market in gold. Once stagflation hits in 2024, there is no turning back.  

Gold: Bullish Catalysts Looming but Not Imminent
 

Related Articles

Gold: Bullish Catalysts Looming but Not Imminent

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.
  • Any comment you publish, together with your investing.com profile, will be public on investing.com and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email