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ETF Analysis: August 12th, 2015

By Doug EberhardtETFsAug 13, 2015 01:21AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/gold-and-silver-current-thoughts-8-12-2015-and-sneak-peak-at-etf-trading-261494
ETF Analysis: August 12th, 2015
By Doug Eberhardt   |  Aug 13, 2015 01:21AM ET
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Below you will find the latest version of our ETF Research Analysis. Enjoy the commentary.

Today’s gold move above $1120 is just what the doctor ordered. That and the move I have wanted with the dollar below 97. A perfect storm for gold and gold mining stocks. We have had 16 stocks trigger long for the gold and silver Mining Package we have.

ETF Research Trading Analysis 8-12-2015

Yesterday, I said of all the trades, the gold mining stocks look the most promising and today you were rewarded. All of the ones I have had on the one to watch list have now turned green and we’ll see how far we can ride them. Now you know why you take the small losses taking stabs at these — because they can run quickly when the tide turns.

In particular, I pointed out NYSE:JNUG on buying the dip and then trading the higher highs. Yesterday I said this: “JNUG buying the dip has worked. I had said that one could sit all day and buy the dips of some of these types of plays. JNUG, as long as it is not hitting a lower low, but higher highs throughout the day, is one of those you can do well with.” Today JNUG was up 24% today and you could have bought the retreats all day long and made a killing, or just have held it all day long and made a killing.

Anytime you get 20% or more in one day, yes, it can be followed by further gains, but there can be reversals. If you see a lower low you can at least sell half and lock in profit. Watch the price of gold and dollar and see if they are still correlating. Please note the mining and metal ETFs have not turned green on the monthly. I am excited about a day like today, but I know the bottom for gold and silver is not in and I am simply enjoying this ride up. We’ve seen it many times in the past few years.

I did say I was long NYSE:UWTI, and I rode it up a little and sold at 1.20 pre-market and well before the report came out. The report wasn’t that great for oil yet UWTI, after falling a bit finished flat at 1.18. DWTI did break 160 again shortly after the report before falling the rest of the day to 155.39. Right now I wouldn’t want to go long either, but NYSE:DWTI still is green on the monthly and that can’t be ignored. I would only buy UWTI if it broke 1.20 and I would do it with large shares, 10,000 or more and only scalp it.

GOLD MINING RELATED ANALYSIS

Yesterday I said we need to get over $1,120 on gold as our next target. $1,120 before $1,100. Today we got it. The rest is up to you now in keeping stops and taking profit. Only you know how greedy you are! Or how conservative you are. If we turn green on the monthly though, we can ride the wave a bit longer. Looking at JNUG, it may struggle at 14, so use that as your guide for the others and again, look at gold and the dollar. It was an ugly dollar chart today.

CHINA

NYSE:YANG gave us the higher high today, but it was only a point and fell with the market recoveries occurring everywhere. .

ENERGY

DWTI and UWTI see above.

NYSE:ERY we were out 2 days ago and it lost 5.38% again today. NYSE:ERX I said to be a buyer on a break of 38.66 and it opened at 37.99 and got to 38.66, where you could have bought and rode it to 40.95. It closed at 40.66. I would have scalped only.

NYSE:UGAZ was a buy over 2.13, but it opened up at 2.21 and it closed at 2.28. You may have still bought at the open and it is green on the weekly looking for a run. If you are scalping these, the odds are better on a green day to just buy the dips. This could have been done today if until the last hour of trading, where you would have finally got stopped out. Past 2.30, I would be long UGAZ looking for 2.43 and past that, load the boat.

INDEXES

BEFORE READING THIS KNOW IT WAS ANOTHER VOLATILE DAY IN THE MARKET AND AN INTRADAY REVERSAL. BECAUSE OF THIS, I WOULD BE CAUTIOUS GOING LONG ANY OF THE ONES GREEN ON THE WEEKLY OR DAILY AND ONLY PLAY THE HIGHER HIGH RULE TOMORROW.

NASDAQ:TQQQ had a wild ride today, but no entries. This volatility today pushed most everyone out of their positions. That’s why you must take profit when handed to you on many below.

Neither ARCA:UVXY or ARCA:SVXY were plays unless you took a risk and bought

ARCA:FAS never triggered and is red, but I still kind of like it and would be a buyer over 33.90 tomorrow.

NYSE:RUSS gave the higher high and is green now on the weekly and monthly. I would attempt a long over 41.87 only though.

ARCA:TZA was volatile again. Tough to play.

NYSE:EDZ opened over a dollar above the 42.06 target and would have been tough to play.

ARCA:DXD, which you may have bought after it opened 22 cents higher than our target, could have been scalped still. Another volatile day though, but it is green on the monthly.

ARCA:SDOW I said to buy over 20.14 and it opened at 2044 and went to 20.90, where you may have scalped. Closed down on the day though.

ARCA:TWM was a buy over 37.26 and the most attractive being that it opened only 9 cents higher and moved to 38.29 for almost a point one could have had. It then fell like all the others.

INTEREST RATES

ARCA:TLT gave 55 cents back today. Started the day nicely and kept going higher before crashing like all in the above section later in the day. Still like it longer term.

ETF Chart
ETF Chart

ETF Chart 2
ETF Chart 2

ETF Analysis: August 12th, 2015
 

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ETF Analysis: August 12th, 2015

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