Breaking News
0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Gold And Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase

By Chris VermeulenCommoditiesMay 06, 2021 11:55AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/gold-and-silver-begin-new-advancing-cycle-phase-200578085
Gold And Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase
By Chris Vermeulen   |  May 06, 2021 11:55AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

Before going into detail regarding my latest research and cycle phases, I want you to think of these cycle phases as advancing and declining cycle trends. They act as a “build-up of trend,” then an “unwinding of trend.” In each instance, trends can be either bullish, bearish or neutral in nature. My research team and I believe a new bullish cycle phase has begun in gold and silver. If our research is correct, the next advancing cycle phase may prompt a broad rally in gold and silver.

Understanding Cycle Phase Analysis & Trends in Metals

We interpret these cycle phases as unique trend segments involved in a broader cycle scope. For example, over a longer-term rally, we may see many bullish advancing and declining cycle phases take place – one after another. Conversely, we may see many bearish cycle phases take place in an extended downtrend. Another type of cycle phase can also exist, the reversal cycle phase – where price advances in one direction and declines in the opposite direction. This type of rotation cycle phase exists as the current completed cycle on the gold chart, below.

As we are nearing the end of the current declining cycle phase as seen in the chart below, we will soon begin the new advancing cycle phase in gold. Gold's reversal cycle phase that took place between Dec. 21, 2020, and May 10, 2021, will likely close higher than the midpoint (or apex) of the total cycle phase. This suggests a new bullish price trend has taken over and the price is more likely to move higher in the next advancing cycle phase. If this trend continues, then the price will continue to rally higher in the declining cycle phase as well – as we saw in the first cycle phase: between March 16, 2020, and Aug. 3, 2020.

Gold Weekly Chart.
Gold Weekly Chart.

Gold & Silver Phase Tables – Will Price Continue A New Bullish Cycle Phase?

To help explain our cycle research, we've put together these tables to detail the cycle phases and price logic we use to interpret each advancing and declining phase. Each table entry consists of an advancing, then declining cycle phase. Combined, they make up a complete cycle phase. We are measuring price at the midpoint (apex) of the cycle phase to determine if any advancing or declining cycle phase is bullish or bearish in trend. If both advancing and declining cycle phases show the same trend direction, we define that completed cycle phase as bullish or bearish. If they differ in trend types, we define that completed cycle phase as a reversal phase.

Gold has been in a downtrend recently, while silver has continued to stay somewhat bullish in a sideways price trend. You can see from the tables below, gold recently completed a reversal cycle phase (ending with a bullish declining phase) while silver has continued to exhibit bullish cycle phases since March 9, 2020.

Both gold and silver ended their last completed cycle phases recently. Gold will end the last completed cycle phase on May 10, 2021. Silver ended its last completed cycle phase on April 12, 2021. The next advancing cycle phase for both gold and silver will begin this week and next week – and will continue until July 19, 2021. After that, the declining cycle phase will begin and last until late September, for gold, and late October for silver.

Gold Cycle Phases.
Gold Cycle Phases.

If our research is correct, we may see extended bullish trending over the next 6+ months in both gold and silver.

Silver Cycle Phases.
Silver Cycle Phases.

Silver Cycle Phases Continue To Show Stronger Bullish Trending

The following silver weekly chart highlights the cycle phases and highlights the price trends for each advancing and declining cycle phase. While gold has experienced an extended bearish cycle phase over the past 5+ months, silver has continued to show stronger bullish price cycle phases and continues to attempt higher closing price levels at the end of each cycle phase. We believe this suggests silver is likely to see some explosive upside price trending when the $28.42 level (the higher YELLOW line) is breached. This level represents historical price resistance for silver. Once this level is breached, we believe silver will begin to advance higher very quickly.

Remember, we have until July 19, 2021, before the first advancing cycle phase in silver ends. This advancing phase may prompt a move above the $28.42 level and may attempt to rally above $30.00 as we have drawn on the chart (below). If the declining cycle phase continues this bullish trend, we may see silver trading above $32.00 ~ $33.00 before Halloween 2021. This would represent a +26.5% rally in Silver from the last completed cycle phase price level.

Silver Weekly Chart.
Silver Weekly Chart.

In closing, we want to suggest that a rally as we are proposing in gold and silver will also present a renewed risk factor for the U.S. and global markets (potentially). In the past, we have seen precious metals rally while the U.S. stock market rallies. It is not uncommon for precious metals to begin to move higher while the U.S. stock market continues to move higher. This type of price activity simply suggests that global traders/investors are moving capital into precious metals as the U.S. stock market climbs a strengthening “wall of worry.” This type of price action happened from 2004 to 2009 – prior to the credit crisis/housing crisis.

Gold And Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase
 

Related Articles

Gold And Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (5)
Ty Phoon
Ty Phoon May 09, 2021 11:43PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Chris, when will you have updates on this article you wrote many months that went totally wrong? https://www.investing.com/analysis/bitcoin-down-almost-10-today-youll-be-surprised-to-hear-whats-next-200536384#comments
Söyle bakalım Alican
Söyle bakalım Alican May 06, 2021 6:19PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
So Platinum? Please
Candy Man
Candy Man May 06, 2021 6:02PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Nice work, ty for sharing. Plus it seems very true today !
Mehmet Dutlu
Mehmet Dutlu May 06, 2021 4:16PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
I donˋt believe stocks and precious metals rally together. Stock valuation is already at irrational level. And if stocks correct, they will pull the whole market with them.
moeti mavuso
moeti mavuso May 06, 2021 1:42PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
u are a liar sies mxm gold Is going down
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email