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Gold After Russia’s Exit: Is It The Calm Before The Storm?

By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com)CommoditiesApr 01, 2020 05:31AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/gold-after-russias-exit-is-it-the-calm-before-the-storm-200520225
Gold After Russia’s Exit: Is It The Calm Before The Storm?
By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com)   |  Apr 01, 2020 05:31AM ET
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First they did it to oil. Next, they might do it to gold.

Russia’s often underestimated strength as a global economic influencer is beginning to dawn on some investors as crude prices languish at 18-year lows partly because of Moscow’s refusal to play by Saudi production cut rules.

While it can be argued that the worst demand collapse in oil’s history is due more to the coronavirus pandemic and Riyadh’s ill-timed production hikes than Russia’s exit from the OPEC+ pact, the Kremlin has now withdrawn from all bullion buying — giving investors in gold a chance to discover how influential or otherwise it is to the yellow metal’s prices.

Gold Futures Weekly Price Chart
Gold Futures Weekly Price Chart

After amassing over $40 billion in bullion holdings over the past five years, Russia has called it quits, presumably because of the strain to its budget caused by current low oil prices.

Bloomberg, which reported the story on Tuesday, said the decision was announced by Russia’s central bank as taking effect from today, April 1, although there was no explanation for the move. Analysts filled the void, saying Russia already has a lot of gold stashed in reserves and likely didn’t need more.

From Relentless Buying to Sudden Stop

Bloomberg added that Russia’s relentless gold buying in recent years has been a key pillar of support for the market, putting a floor under prices as investors ditched safe havens and bought riskier, higher-yielding assets. It said the bullion stockpile held by Bank Rossii, as the central bank in Moscow is known, is reportedly valued at about $120 billion — or weighing some 75 million ounces at today’s market price of around $1,600 an ounce.

China’s central bank, often in the news for supposedly being the world’s largest gold hoarder, was reported to have 62.64 million ounces in its cache six months ago. Presuming both reports were true, and that the People’s Bank of China had bought more bullion before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and not liquidated much, then the two central banks were probably holding about the same amount of gold.

Now, here’s the clincher: what if either start dumping a good portion of that gold in coming months to tide them through the global recession anticipated from the pandemic? While Russia’s fiscal deficit to its 2020 GDP is expected to be at around 1.5% versus China’s 3.5%, Moscow’s economy is more oil-dependent compared to China’s amazingly-diversified economy. In a crunch, it doesn’t take much to figure out which central bank will be selling more gold.

So far Russia’s decision to halt bullion buying has barely impacted gold prices, which have enjoyed further wind lately after Wall Street’s most influential voice in commodities, Goldman Sachs, recommended the yellow metal as a “currency of last resort”.

Spot Gold Weekly Price Chart
Spot Gold Weekly Price Chart

In Tuesday’s final trade for March, spot gold, which tracks live trades in bullion, last traded at $1,571.31, down almost $52, or 3.2%.

Gold futures on New York’s COMEX settled down 46.6, or 2.9%, at $1,596.60 per ounce.

Gold Still Up For 6th Straight Quarter

For the month, bullion lost nearly 1% but for the quarter; it jumped 5% — its sixth straight quarterly win. Gold futures gained 2% in March and also about 5% for the quarter.

The bullish setting for gold may be the calm before the storm that hits those thinking that gold would stay at its current $1,500-$1,600 perch.

“Russia pulling back on gold is a big deal,” said Michael Norman, a former Credit Suisse trader and gold market veteran who has since founded New York-based Mike Norman Economics. “It certainly necessitates, I think, a pretty significant correction in the gold price to discount one of the biggest buyers in the world pulling out of the market.”

Norman said he exited from his gold positions before Tuesday’s selling accelerated, pushing both bullion and futures beneath the $1,600 level. He expects a deeper slide hereon.

“I think we'll definitely see that $1450 level test again,” he said. “And actually I really think we could see gold go down into the $1,300s, maybe to $1,370-$1,380.”

Bloomberg alluded to a likely downdraft in gold prices as well in its Tuesday story about the Russian withdrawal from the market.

With the market not too far from the seven-year high of $1,700 hit in early March, Russian dealers were probably eager to sell, it noted. Despite its strong quarterly gain, gold has acted more like a risk asset than a safe haven lately, often tumbling as investors liquidated their holdings in the yellow metal to raise cash for margin trades and losses in equities and elsewhere.

Demand There For Russia’s Gold Hoard; Price Debatable

“The central bank is now signaling to gold sellers that they should redirect their supplies externally,” Dmitry Dolgin, ING Bank’s chief economist in Russia, was quoted saying by Bloomberg. “Global demand seems to be high.”

While the demand will make it easy for Bank Rossii to find buyers for its gold bars, the central bank is still likely to prioritize expediency over price to fund Moscow’s distressed budget — meaning its sales may not necessarily lift the market.

One thing that could run in gold’s favor in the near-term is the Federal Reserve’s move on Tuesday to set up a temporary repurchase facility for foreign and international monetary authorities that will flood the credit markets with more dollars. A higher dollar supply is positive for gold, which is a contrarian trade to the greenback.

“We saw the Dollar Index come down from almost 103 yesterday, into the 98 handle, after the Fed’s announcement,” said Norman. “We’ll have to see how effective that measure will be to tamp the dollar down and push gold higher.”

Jeffrey Halley, analyst at online trading platform OANDA, said $1450 appeared to be a firm interim support for gold.

“Maintaining any rallies above $1,650 remains challenging,” Halley said. “That is a wide but real range, such are the times we are living in.”

The Russians could show us, in the coming months, where gold’s range will be.

Disclaimer: Barani Krishnan does not own or hold a position in the commodities or securities he writes about.

Gold After Russia’s Exit: Is It The Calm Before The Storm?
 

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Gold After Russia’s Exit: Is It The Calm Before The Storm?

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Comments (31)
SATHYAMURTHY PS
SATHYAMURTHY PS Apr 07, 2020 11:45AM ET
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Like gold, can u give your views on silver also? I trade silver but not gold. If you can write about the price dynamics of silver, it would be enlightening.
Solomon Lalani
Solomon Apr 03, 2020 4:05PM ET
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Never underestimate Putin; maybe he just wants to the price to go down for Russia to buy more at lower prices.  He may also be holding puts on Russia's gold reserves to protect its value and profit from the price decline
Rene Pungartnik
blackstock Apr 03, 2020 11:20AM ET
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i think we will see 1900 area again, like in 2011.
Shawn Fegely
Shawn Fegely Apr 03, 2020 1:10AM ET
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"Buy Low, sell High" isn't that the name of the game?...
peter king
peter king Apr 01, 2020 6:05PM ET
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thanks for this information on gold
peter king
peter king Apr 01, 2020 6:05PM ET
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pls sir. any view on GBP and EUR/USD
fabrizio xx
fabrizioxx Apr 01, 2020 3:06PM ET
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in my opinion, the Russians will hold  tightly physical gold hedging heavily by futures, derivatives and options
Proble Matic
Proble Matic Apr 01, 2020 12:40PM ET
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I found this to be very informative and logical. Let's see how things turn out.
Gary Icemangold
Icemangold Apr 01, 2020 12:22PM ET
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R article completely misleading. What it sh say: Russian domestic producers free to sell their gold on international markets. also, Russia has over $660BN in reserve currency. They understand - to sell gold now is stupid.
AIM Investor Journal
AIM_IJ Apr 01, 2020 11:36AM ET
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Why would Russia want to help the USD's status as a safe haven and dump it's strategically important gold reserves? A strong dollar is more power (literally purchasing power) to the US. Russian interests are more aligned with weakening the USD and waiting for it's newly acquired gold reserves to appreciate in value.
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jihad ismail
jihad ismail Apr 01, 2020 11:36AM ET
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so you are saying Russia's latest move in oil market and now in gold has nothing to USD world status ?? anyway we will how this will end up
jihad ismail
jihad ismail Apr 01, 2020 11:36AM ET
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see*
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 11:36AM ET
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You fail to understand the crux of the story. The $37 bln budget deficit is a projection based on estimates made before the latest oil price crash. Crude at $20 a barrel or below is absolutely disastrous to the Russian economy. I believe the Russian situation will end up like what we have in the US. After a $2 trillion stimulus, Congress is thinking of another fiscal response and trust me (i live here), it could be $6 trillion ultimately or even $8 trillion if the unemployment and fallout from this drags with no easy end in sight. The US economy is fairly diversified -- consumer-based, no doubt -- but still better diversified than the Russian GDP, which is made up of oil and petroleum products largely, as well as gas and coal. The rest is rolled steel, ferrous and nonferrous metals and minerals. None of these are having tearaway demand at the moment. The Russians may not admit it, but this is a serious crisis for them too. I'm not suggesting they need trillions. But it's above 37b.
AIM Investor Journal
AIM_IJ Apr 01, 2020 11:36AM ET
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Barani Krishnan Is the US economy better equipped to handle this pandemic? Western economies have exacerbated the spread, those with the best transport links have enabled the virus to spread fastest. There are other factors of course and the government response being key but take the average US citizen, they require a great deal more than the average Russian. Those in the highest seat have furthest to fall. So I don't doubt Russia is headed for a recession too but the economic damage will be many many times worse to our privileged economies. Regarding US exports, it doesn't matter now as no one is buying or selling anything except medical equipment and food. USD safe haven status matters more than exports right now and investors confidence in USD has been remarkably resilient throughout this pandemic. I don't think it will last. One thing I'm sure of is long term Russian interests want power to seep out of the US and that includes confidence in the USD
Robert Flores
Robert Flores Apr 01, 2020 11:36AM ET
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AIM Investor Journal the western economies would be far bettwr equiped if there governments warent so big and indebted and there financial sector so levered
sudhir soni
sudhir soni Apr 01, 2020 11:25AM ET
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if a economy collapse than gold is a strong candidate to hold economy.but if you hold your economy than only one option to save your economy 👉 sold the gold
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Proble Matic
Proble Matic Apr 01, 2020 11:25AM ET
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jihad ismail Sell the freaking gold, man. Pay attention.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 11:25AM ET
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Thank you :)
Thomas Camargo
Thomas Camargo Apr 01, 2020 11:25AM ET
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jihad ismail LOL... u read but didn’t get a dime out of the piece of news right???
Thomas Camargo
Thomas Camargo Apr 01, 2020 11:25AM ET
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Cash/ liquidity is king when there is a catastrophic hick up on world economy as the one we are facing, so no wonder the largest bullion buyer changed strategy now. It will be interesting to see how it will go when the sell off begins
jihad ismail
jihad ismail Apr 01, 2020 11:25AM ET
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i was asking to make sure i understood right . and seems i did . it does not make any sense for Russia to sell gold now . they have a reserves of 550$ B and gold is only 125$ B . so why would any body start selling gold if they have cash ???
Ranjit Sharma
Ranjit Sharma Apr 01, 2020 11:24AM ET
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Thank for your views, it was really informative
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 11:24AM ET
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Truly appreciate your kind words, Ranjit.
Francesco Lucchesi
Francesco Lucchesi Apr 01, 2020 11:22AM ET
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but this is factually not correct. Russia can manipulate the price of oil. but the price of gold? not quite sure
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 11:22AM ET
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Russia isn't "manipulating" the price of oil. It simply got out of the OPEC+ deal because of the restrictions being placed on its output which were, in turn, affecting its exports. Sechin of Rosneft has been warning Putin for a long time that the OPEC+ deal was a bad one for Russia. Now, the Russians can export to whomever they want at whatever quantity and price. The Saudis, of course, know this and that's why they have ramped up their production too, to record highs, in order to beat the Russians and the Americans at the game.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 11:22AM ET
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But if Russia sells gold, it will basically be to cover its budget deficit. So it can sell lower than market or higher, depending on the demand it gets. That's not market manipulation. That's supply-demand. All I refer to was Russia's underestimated role in being able to influence global prices.
Ravindra Sardeshmukh
Ravindra Sardeshmukh Apr 01, 2020 11:21AM ET
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As the history says, gold has been a matter of attraction for each of the human race, a symbol of richness. Now it's become a substitute for currency world wide. I would love to advise not to go for sell and wait for the next few months if at all one like to fetch good dough.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 11:21AM ET
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Yes, that's good counsel too. This article basically informs readers of the volatility that could be coming.
Joe chan
Joe chan Apr 01, 2020 11:18AM ET
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Maybe they no more money to buy gold anymore.. Ha
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 11:18AM ET
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Yes, they do not have unlimited money ... that's for sure :)
jihad ismail
jihad ismail Apr 01, 2020 11:18AM ET
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the intersting part is that , Russia is one of the biggest producers of gold in the world. the Russian central bank buys gold from their producers like "polus gold" in Rubles which is basically unlimited money. but the decision to export that gold instead of buying it in rubles , could be related to get more money to budget to balance it and this way keep the oil prices slow with no effect on the budget .
jihad ismail
jihad ismail Apr 01, 2020 11:18AM ET
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oil prices low*
Gold Cycle
Gold Cycle Apr 01, 2020 11:16AM ET
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if physical gold has anything affect on the paper gold, we would see $5000 already...it really doesnt matter at all whether Russia buy or sell physical gold.. same with silver. the paper market is heavily manipulated. it'll come unravel soon!
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 11:16AM ET
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Yes I've heard this argument as well. There are so many conspiracy theories on Wall Street banks engineering the manipulation in gold prices. Nothing has been proven though.
Robert Flores
Robert Flores Apr 01, 2020 11:14AM ET
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Thank you for the article! It gives me patience to find better entry for gold and silver
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 11:14AM ET
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Robert Flores, thank you. People like you are what make it worth my while writing these articles.
Hmada Vic
Hmada Vic Apr 01, 2020 11:14AM ET
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OMG so many views, If you don't mind sir what do suggest buy or sell or wait to see more what will happen? 😷
The true Messiah
The true Messiah Apr 01, 2020 11:12AM ET
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Who disdains wants to buy.
travert xavier
travert xavier Apr 01, 2020 10:44AM ET
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120 billions in Moscow central bank, fine it'd still way lower than the daily trading volume of gold paper..
Ryan Droege
Ryan Droege Apr 01, 2020 10:44AM ET
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if there wasn't paper, what do you think the process would be?
Silverbug 19
Silverbug 19 Apr 01, 2020 10:19AM ET
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please sell your gold. sold out everywhere.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 10:19AM ET
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It's going to be volatile for sure. But many will also hold on to their gold, given its inherent value in tough times.
Cryoman Frozen
Cryoman Frozen Apr 01, 2020 10:15AM ET
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Time to buy bitcoin.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 10:15AM ET
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That's even more volatile, actually.
me ish
me ish Apr 01, 2020 10:15AM ET
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exactly  - if gold and silver is hard to come by, then BTC is another very good alternative. Great value right now. Also precious metals junior and mid cap miners with low debt levels
Gary Icemangold
Icemangold Apr 01, 2020 9:30AM ET
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If you read Bank statement, they will stop INTERNAL from local producers purchases - nothing to do with gold futures.
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Million Dollar
Million Dollar Apr 01, 2020 9:30AM ET
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Barani Krishnan if they sell their gold it will be with a premium..and there's plenty of buyers. UK bought almost all of the gold Russia sold last year
Robert Flores
Robert Flores Apr 01, 2020 9:30AM ET
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Barani Krishnan but physical must affect paper to a degree right?
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 9:30AM ET
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Eventually. The two usually align at some point. The question is what rice Russia will get for its bullion and how that feeds back into the daily spot price.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 9:30AM ET
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I agree They didn't present circumstances it will be a premium. However if the sale is made much later, market dynamics could change.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 9:30AM ET
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NOTaTrader, I meant "under the present circumstances" (typo earlier)
Bunjeard Wanit
Bunjeard Wanit Apr 01, 2020 7:31AM ET
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Never a strom til it get to 1450.. then strom sir
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 7:31AM ET
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True. It's a storm waiting to happen.
Alex Malmstrom
BrassTacks1 Apr 01, 2020 7:01AM ET
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Fantastically informative article. Thank you.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 7:01AM ET
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Thanks as well for the kind words. You're most welcome.
Jan Buyle
Jan Buyle Apr 01, 2020 6:54AM ET
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Just like in 2008-2009 gold is first going to go down 25% from it 's top before it will start a fenomenal rally up to the moon. Study previous crisisses before you invest in gold at this moment. This is a free advice....
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 6:54AM ET
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Yes, markets operate contrary to Newton's law. What goes down must come up :)
Tom Paonessa
Tom Paonessa Apr 01, 2020 6:54AM ET
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FYI crisis is singular and crises is plural
Joseph Ndegwa
Joseph Ndegwa Apr 01, 2020 6:54AM ET
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Barani Krishnan  so according to you is this  the right time to buy gold
Shawn Ip
Shawn Ip Apr 01, 2020 6:54AM ET
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We cannot take our paper gold or gold bars to exchange for food, staples, or medical supplies in times of crisis and lockdown. Storage and security bring additional costs for hoarding gold. Might be just around the crisis is over then people will be reminded of how much liquidity we have injected into the system. That is when gold implodes
Darryl Parvin
Darryl Parvin Apr 01, 2020 6:46AM ET
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Thanks for the insights.
Barani Krishnan
Barani Krishnan Apr 01, 2020 6:46AM ET
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You're most welcome.
 
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