The GBP/USD pair is on the rise for the second consecutive month, reaching the March high at 1.2817.
Recently, investors were concerned about the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve would completely abandon monetary policy easing this year due to increased inflationary pressure in the first quarter. However, new macroeconomic data brought relief: in April, the core personal consumption expenditures index, a key indicator for the Fed, fell from 0.3% to 0.2%.
Additionally, the growth of new job offers slowed to 8.059 million, and the May industrial activity index fell from 49.2 to 48.7 points. With weakening inflation and a possible economic slowdown, Fed officials may adopt a more dovish stance, with most experts expecting an interest rate cut in September and another by the end of the year.
On the other hand, the Bank of England, which was expected to cut interest rates in the summer, may postpone this change to the end of the year. In April, the consumer price index rose to 2.3%, above the forecasted 2.1%, and the British economy remains stable, with moderate growth in business activity in May. Furthermore, with the general parliamentary elections scheduled for July 4, the central bank will likely avoid major policy changes until a new government is formed.
Thus, an earlier change in monetary policy by the Fed and a later change by the Bank of England is expected, which should support the GBP/USD pair in the medium term.
Support and Resistance Levels
The GBP/USD broke out of the medium-term descending channel, surpassing the resistance at 1.2817. If this level is exceeded, the pair could advance to 1.2890 and 1.3061. On the other hand, if it falls below 1.2695, it could start a new downtrend towards 1.2573 and 1.2490.
Resistances: 1.2817, 1.2890, 1.3061
Supports: 1.2695, 1.2573, 1.2490
Trading Scenarios
Longs:
Entry: Above 1.2817
Targets: 1.2890, 1.3061
Stop Loss: 1.2765
Timeframe: 5-7 days
Shorts:
Entry: Below 1.2695
Targets: 1.2573, 1.2490
Stop Loss: 1.2770
Conclusion
The GBP/USD is benefiting from the uncertainty surrounding the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England. With recent economic data suggesting a potential shift in the Fed's stance and greater caution from the Bank of England due to the upcoming elections, the pair may continue to show volatility.
Traders should keep an eye on the mentioned support and resistance levels to take advantage of trading opportunities as the market adjusts to new economic and political developments.