Let us ask ourselves if the NFP report will have any impact on the markets. It is unlikely it will. With two weeks before Christmas, and also considering that next week the Fed and the ECB will have their meetings, the investors will not rush into aggressive USD buying or selling. In September, the US employment data was awfully weak but that time it was a consequence of the rough weather. November was quiet and just usual.
Meanwhile, the US Government is running out of money today, and there was a possibility it suspends its work. The Congress had time until Friday’s midnight to pass legislation funding the government, but it agreed on a delay, and now it has two weeks to make an agreement on the budget and raising the ceiling.
There is some positive news from the Pound’s theater: firstly, the EU’s Juncker told today they managed to make the “first breakthrough” in the negotiations with the UK. Secondly, the sides are ready to proceed to the second phase of the talks. Finally, the Irish Minister of Foreign Affairs said that there will be no hard border whatever the outcome is. So, everybody is happy.
Sterling’s positions have been improving for the last 24 hours, but it is better to wait for the breakout of the resistance at 1.3532, which will confirm the bullish phase. If the NFP data is a dollar- positive, the pair may start a correction to the 1.3465 level with the target at 1.3395.