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Forex Weekly Commentary: Japanese Yen, Euro Pairs, Plus Copper

By Brian TwomeyForexMay 23, 2021 07:30AM ET
Forex Weekly Commentary: Japanese Yen, Euro Pairs, Plus Copper
By Brian Twomey   |  May 23, 2021 07:30AM ET
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Japanese yen pairs

AUD/JPY broke from its 85.00’s close in the past 2 weeks at 85.11 and 85.05 to close lower at 84.16. Encouraging to future shorts is the break lower at 84.39 and 84.37 at the 10 and 15 year averages.

For the past 2 months, AUD/JPY traded from 83.01 to 85.79 or 278 pips and 139 pips per month. The AUD/JPY vital break is located at 83.27 and 77.37 for NZD/JPY.

JPY cross pairs remain tied to correlation paralysis as USD/JPY not only correlates +90% to JPY cross pairs, but + 90% to anchor currencies, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD.

CHF/JPY correlates +90% to USD/JPY and minus 53% to USD/CHF. Overall JPY cross pairs will trade neutral for the new week and the same scenario as last week.

USD/JPY maintains a negative correlation to USD/CHF at -12%. USD/CAD correlates +48% to USD/CHF. USD/CAD and USD/CHF trade under current prices to represent a double trade although the correlation at 70% to 80% constitutes a better situation to fully trust.

The USD/CAD vital break is located 1.2372 and the 50 day average at 1.2345 while the USD/CHF vital break is located at 0.9070 and the 20 day average is found at 0.9049.

Moving forward, USD/CHF is first priority to trade long as USD/CHF is oversold to all averages dating to 1998 while USD/CAD becomes secondary.

USD/JPY must break lower at 108.08 for any serious price moves to its current deeply misaligned price. USD/JPY is not only perfectly neutral short, medium and longer term, but not worth the trade effort.

Neutral USD/JPY, while oversold USD/CAD and USD/CHF is derived from the BOJ Call Rates. High and low Call Rates traded Friday at 0.986 to 0.925 then subtracted for 0.06. Call Rates traded Thursday at 1.001 to 0.93, then subtracted for 0.07. Wednesday equated to 0.07. The Fed Overnight rate was 0.06 and this is not just a phantom number.

Cal Rates informed clearly that USD/JPY would close Friday at 108.90; known at the close of Japanese markets. Since exchange rates are glorified interest rates, neither the BOJ nor the Fed allows USD/JPY to trade correctly and at its proper levels.

USD/JPY and anchor pairs under equal correlations highlight how closely national interest rates trade against each other. Its up to the Fed to make a move as the world of trading is tied into the current 0.06.

Look for 108.35 to hold for Monday and Tuesday and vital 108.27 to not break yet.

Euro pairs

We were informed last week that EUR/USD's vital level at 1.2258. EUR/USD dropped from 1.2244 to lows at 1.2160 or 80 pips. While EUR/USD no longer qualifies as a problem pair to current price normalization after weeks in problem status, EUR/USD and all currency pairs suffer from severe range compression.

The EUR/USD big break lower is located at 1.2078 and the 50 day average is located at 1.2048.

EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD remain deeply oversold along with USD/CAD. No changes over many weeks.

EUR/NZD oversold last week forced overbought GBP/NZD higher. EUR/NZD this week maintains fairly neutral status to massively overbought GBP/NZD. Watch NZD/USD 0.7160.

Deeply overbought and problem pair GBP/AUD last week traded 300 pips higher. This is what problem status demonstrates. Stay away. GBP/AUD this week remains deeply overbought while EUR/AUD sits at neutral.

AUD/EUR advises EUR/AUD trades at 1.5820 to 1.5656 while AUD/GBP forecasts GBP/AUD trades at 1.8385 to 1.8198.

EUR/USD vital levels for the week: 1.2028, 1.2049, 1.2078, 1.2117, 1.2186, 1.2255, 1.2324, 1.2461 and 1.2530.

USD/CLP and Copper

Chile is home to the largest copper mines in the world and the greatest source of national revenue as it produces the world’s copper, particularly China as Chile’s best customer over decades.

In 2020, according to Chile’s Statistics Office, Chile produced 5.7 million tones against an estimated reserve of 200 million tones. Copper output however dropped for the past 10 months. March saw a 1.3% decline to 491,720 tones. Producers blame COVID-19.

USD/CLP jumped 283 pips last Monday from 697.05 to 725.36 while copper fell last week 31 points from 4.7831 to 4.4731. If economic normalization appears, then copper heads higher while USD/CLP travels lower.

Forex Weekly Commentary: Japanese Yen, Euro Pairs, Plus Copper

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Forex Weekly Commentary: Japanese Yen, Euro Pairs, Plus Copper

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Muhammad Shahbaz
Muhammad Shahbaz May 30, 2021 12:22AM ET
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hello sir how are u
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