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Forex Speculators Raised USD Bets For 1st Time In 7 Weeks

Published 10/08/2017, 04:07 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

US Dollar COT Large Speculators Sentiment Vs UUP ETF

US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-16.83 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators raised their bets for the US dollar last week following six straight weeks of declines.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $-16.83 billion as of Tuesday October 3rd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $0.53 billion from the $-17.36 billion total long position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly Change In US Dollar Speculators Aggregate Positions

The individual major currencies had two weekly changes above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

  • Japanese yen bets dropped by over -10,000 contracts for a second straight week as short bets rose to the highest level since August 8th when bets totaled -95,813 contracts.
  • British pound sterling bets increased by over +10,000 net contracts for a third straight week. The recent gains brought overall GBP speculative bets into a bullish position for the first time since November of 2015 and this week’s gains pushed bullish bets to 19,949 net contracts.

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the euro (2,666 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (14,895 contracts), Canadian dollar (523 contracts), New Zealand dollar (65 contracts) and the Mexican peso (5,389 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the Japanese yen (-13,296 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,431 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-5,382 contracts).

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

Euro: COT Futures Large Traders Vs EUR/USD

British Pound Sterling:

British Pound: COT Futures Large Traders Vs GBP/USD

Japanese Yen:

Japanese Yen: COT Futures Large Traders Vs JPY/USD

Swiss Franc:

Swiss Franc: COT Futures Large Traders Vs CHF/USD

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian Dollar: COT Futures Large Traders Vs CAD/USD

Australian Dollar:

Australian Dollar: COT Futures Large Traders Vs AUD/USD

New Zealand Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar: COT Futures Large Traders Vs NZD/USD

Mexican Peso:

Mexican Peso: COT Futures Large Traders Vs MXN/USD

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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