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FOMC Preview: Taper Talk And Impact On U.S. Dollar

By Kathy LienForexJun 15, 2021 04:08PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/fomc-preview-taper-talk-and-impact-on-us-dollar-200586305
FOMC Preview: Taper Talk And Impact On U.S. Dollar
By Kathy Lien   |  Jun 15, 2021 04:08PM ET
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The outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement could set the stage for how the U.S. dollar and currencies trade over the next month. With that in mind, the greenback maintained its bid ahead of rate decision. USD/JPY hovered near two-month highs above 110 as EUR/USD held below 1.2150. Today’s U.S. economic reports were supposed to have a big impact on trader positioning into FOMC, and the fact that investors ignored weaker reports is an important sign of how sentiment is skewed into the event. They continue to look past weak data in favor of rising prices and a stronger recovery.
 
Retail sales fell 1.3% in the month of May, which was significantly weaker than anticipated. With declining auto supply, economists forecasted a decline in spending, but they expected retail sales excluding autos to rise by 0.2%. Unfortunately core retail sales fell 0.7%, as consumers shift spending from goods to services. Demand for home improvement gave way to more experience spending on restaurants and lodging. Manufacturing activity in the New York region also grew at its weakest pace in three months, according to the Empire State survey. Yet, the U.S. dollar’s buoyancy tells us that investors expect the Fed to cave to rising prices and address rather than avoid the issue of reducing asset purchases, especially with producer price growth hitting a record high.   
 
Investors need to beware of the potential for disappointment from the Fed. U.S. policy-makers have insisted on every occasion that the rise in prices is transitory and will fall as pent up demand and supply-chain disruptions ease. The prospects for the recovery are strong, but consumer demand and job growth over the past two months have been subdued. Like the ECB, which avoided taper talk last week, if the Fed is cautious, it will want to wait for real data improvements before admitting that it is time to start talking about tapering its $120-billion-a-month bond-buying program. 
 
On the one hand, however, market conditions are ideal for taper talk to begin. Stocks are strong, volatility is low and investors are optimistic, which provides a cushion for a deep correction. By vaguely mentioning that it is looking into reducing bond buys, it gives investors an entire summer to discount the changes before the Fed’s Jackson Hole summit in August.  
 
With no changes in monetary policy expected, the main focus for investors tomorrow will be the Fed’s 'dot plot' forecast and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Any discussion of adjusting the pace of bond purchases will be revealed in Powell’s speech and clarified in the question-and-answer period. Back in March, when the Fed’s economic projections were last updated, the dot plot showed a split of 11-7 against a 2023 interest rate hike. Now, it is widely believed that the forecasts will shift to tightening next year.
 
If you are trading FOMC, here’s the rundown of what will happen tomorrow:
 
The U.S. dollar could see an initial pop at 2 p.m. New York time if the dot plot shows expectations for the first rate hike shifting to 2023. After that we expect consolidation, with a bias to the upside before Powell speaks. If he acknowledges the need to begin taper talk, EUR/USD could drop towards 1.20 and USD/JPY could make a run for 111. However, if he avoids talking taper and downplays the immediate need to discuss reducing asset purchases, effectively doubling down on the view that inflation is transitory, the U.S. dollar could fall quickly and aggressively. 
 
U.S. Economic Indicators.
U.S. Economic Indicators.
FOMC Preview: Taper Talk And Impact On U.S. Dollar
 

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FOMC Preview: Taper Talk And Impact On U.S. Dollar

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Comments (25)
Mr PA
Mr PA Jun 18, 2021 1:30AM ET
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its not stopping, you were dead wrong!
Mr PA
Mr PA Jun 17, 2021 10:18AM ET
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You cost me so much money! I hate you
Walter Muchareva
Walter Muchareva Jun 17, 2021 10:18AM ET
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That was not a financial advice the only person you should mad at is yourself Mr
Mr PA
Mr PA Jun 17, 2021 4:55AM ET
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God, why did I listen to you....so much lost
Mr PA
Mr PA Jun 17, 2021 4:49AM ET
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You were wrong and it cost me a lot of money.
Ohacracy San
Ohacracy San Jun 16, 2021 7:24PM ET
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Lets see how it goes
Legandary Mafia
Legandary Mafia Jun 16, 2021 3:43PM ET
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@kathy Lien, your the best❤️💯📊💰✅💐
Miriam Morkhul
Miriam Morkhul Jun 16, 2021 9:40AM ET
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Reminder: interest on debt = 400 503 000 000$
Gurjar Jayendra
Gurjar Jayendra Jun 16, 2021 4:33AM ET
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how to impact of increase rat of FOMC IN XAUUSD AND GBPUSD
Ivan oh
Ivan oh Jun 16, 2021 3:42AM ET
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Thank you so much
Ivan oh
Ivan oh Jun 16, 2021 3:42AM ET
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Thank you so much!!
Ivan oh
Ivan oh Jun 16, 2021 3:41AM ET
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👍👍👍
Zain Butt
Zain Butt Jun 16, 2021 3:26AM ET
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Thanks Kathy
Opieze Ezeh
Opieze Ezeh Jun 16, 2021 2:25AM ET
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Thank you Kathy.
Raja Ahmad
Raja Ahmad Jun 16, 2021 2:18AM ET
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Good article
Anh Phạm Quốc
Anh Phạm Quốc Jun 16, 2021 1:29AM ET
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Awesome article
Domie Mwendia
Domie Mwendia Jun 15, 2021 11:39PM ET
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Thanks Kathy
Joel Schwartz
Joel Schwartz Jun 15, 2021 10:44PM ET
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How can any country with a central bank this entrenched in their economy even pretend they have free markets? Stocks move on the whims of the FED month to month more than any fundamentals they used to rely on.
The GOAT
The_Goat Jun 15, 2021 9:29PM ET
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No tapering or interest rates hikes. The market will 100% figure this out by the end of 2023. Ticking time bomb for the dollar
Chris Poulos
Chris Poulos Jun 15, 2021 9:22PM ET
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with recent data disappointments i cant imagine powell is going to say anything positive. if youre a usd bull i think you are going to be disappointed.
Nwafor Godstime C J
Nwafor Godstime C J Jun 15, 2021 9:01PM ET
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thank you
Aleksander Dashi
Aleksander Dashi Jun 15, 2021 5:49PM ET
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Great article Kathy, as usual! Many thanks
Alexander Stinson
Alexander Stinson Jun 15, 2021 5:38PM ET
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s&p 500 ready to tank
Mark Manley
Mark Manley Jun 15, 2021 5:33PM ET
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Retail sales fell because people are vacationing for the first time in over a year, instead of vegetating in front of their computers mindlessly clicking "buy". BTW, that was my tax dollars all of you millennials were blowing on meme stocks and coach handbags. I expect to get it back.
Show previous replies (1)
Jouni Matero
Jouni Matero Jun 15, 2021 5:33PM ET
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So they're vacationing for months in a row, that's how long retail sales have been sinking. Use your brain dude. Aaron's right.
what ever
permaNOTHING Jun 15, 2021 5:33PM ET
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your social security check and Medicare will be coming from the money they rob from me. I expect it back
Colonel Forbin
Colonel Forbin Jun 15, 2021 5:33PM ET
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Manley it was your tax dollars that keep the stock market at current levels for you to draw form. They will pay way more than the 4K the goverment sent them as a result of that .
Colonel Forbin
Colonel Forbin Jun 15, 2021 5:33PM ET
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Players don’t talk like that either. You talk like it was you and not your parents that won world war II
Joel Schwartz
Joel Schwartz Jun 15, 2021 5:33PM ET
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It wasn’t anyone’s tax dollars that did this. Look at the M2 Money Supply. The FED created all this inflation out of thin air - AND ON PURPOSE.
Klaus Weyers
Klaus Weyers Jun 15, 2021 5:30PM ET
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no taper talk yet.. usdeur to 1.23
Mir Chang
Mir Chang Jun 15, 2021 4:34PM ET
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Usd isnt ready yet to poise for a rate hike. This will slow down other countries as most majors are depended on commodity prices for export. I am still pushing wti and brent to $100 and gold at $2000. We would have too look for next summer. Fall and winter would stall some growth.
 
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