Bond prices are falling. They have been falling since the middle of 2016. Their prices are now off almost 20%. Bond Kings Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach are calling the end of the 30 year bull market run. Yet technically this view may be premature.
The chart below shows 30 year US Treasury Bond prices over the past 20 years. The long rising channel pops out at you as a first impression. The lower rail of that channel has held bonds up as support for this entire run. And it still does today. A break of this trend line would be a first step toward confirming a shift to a bearish long term view.
Note that the price action has moved back to the 100 month SMA. As you follow the moving average back in time this has also been a factor in limiting the downside movement. A violation of this level would be a second indication of a shift to a bearish focus.
What would confirm the bear shift is a lower low, under the low at the end of 2013. This would also breach the 200 month SMA. Momentum is falling and in bearish ranges so continuation is a real possibility. But until a lower low happens it is just an intermediate downturn.
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