Factors You Must Pay Attention to Ahead of BP's Q4 Earnings

BP plc (LON:BP) BP (NYSE:BP) is set to report fourth-quarter 2021 results on Feb 8.

In the last reported quarter, BP comfortably beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which was largely driven by higher realizations of commodity prices and a stronger refining business. It beat the consensus estimate thrice in the prior four quarters, while missing the same on one occasion, with an average earnings surprise of 10.82%. This is depicted in the graph below:

BP p.l.c. Price and EPS Surprise

BP p.l.c. price-eps-surprise | BP p.l.c. Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.18 has witnessed one downward revision and three upward revisions in the past 60 days. The estimated figure suggests a massive improvement from the prior-year reported number.

The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter revenues of $42.1 billion indicates a 13.3% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Consider

The pricing scenario of oil in fourth-quarter 2021 improved drastically from the prior-year period, thanks to the rolling out of coronavirus vaccines. The pricing environment of natural gas also improved dramatically in the December quarter from the year-ago period. The rise in oil and natural gas prices is likely to have aided BP’s upstream businesses.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BP’s replacement cost (RC) profit before interest and tax from oil production & operations is pegged at $3,000 million, reflecting a massive improvement year over year.

However, owing to seasonal demand, BP expects its refining margins to be lower in the December quarter of 2021.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for BP this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: BP’s Earnings ESP is -5.96% as the Most Accurate Estimate is $1.11 per share while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is $1.18 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: BP currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few firms that you may want to consider as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) Inc. PBF has an Earnings ESP of +22.25% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

PBF Energy is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 10. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBF’s earnings is pegged at 53 cents per share, suggesting an increase of 111.7% from the prior-year reported figure.

Viper Energy (NASDAQ:VNOM) Partners VNOM has an Earnings ESP of +14.93% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Viper Energy is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb 22. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Viper Energy’s earnings is pegged at 19 cents per unit, suggesting an improvement of 58.3% compared to the prior-year reported figure.

Enbridge (NYSE:ENB) Inc. ENB has an Earnings ESP of +1.22% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Enbridge is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 11. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbridge’s earnings is pegged at 61 cents per share, suggesting a year-over-year improvement of almost 42%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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