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EUR/USD: Trend Will Not Continue Much Lower

By Al BrooksMarket OverviewJun 11, 2021 09:49AM ET
EUR/USD: Trend Will Not Continue Much Lower
By Al Brooks   |  Jun 11, 2021 09:49AM ET
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EUR/USD is turning down from lower high double top with June 1 high. Therefore, possible bear channel.

Middle of 2-month trading range, so Breakout Mode, and traders looking for reversals every few days.

Bulls want double bottom with June 4, May 13, or May 5 lows.

Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance can be important.

This week so far is a bear inside bar, and it follows a double top 2 weeks ago with the Feb. 25 high.

If this week closes below its midpoint, and especially near its low, it will be a good sell signal bar on the weekly chart.

Bears want week to break below last week’s low (June 4 low), and close below that low.

Bulls want week to close above the open, but that is unlikely, given the strong trend down overnight on the 5 minute chart.

The more the week closes near its low, the more likely next week will be lower, which means more likely the selloff will test the 1.20 area.

If today can reverse up, and close in the middle of today’s range, traders will expect more sideways trading next week.

At the moment, it looks like the EUR/USD will trade at least a little lower next week


Overnight EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart

Strong overnight bear trend. Day traders have only been selling, and many have been swing trading.

The daily range is about average, which means the trend will probably not continue much lower.

There was an unusually big bear bar in the last hour. That might be an exhaustive sell climax.

The bulls want the strong bear trend to convert into a trading range. It is unlikely that the first reversal up will become a bull trend. The strong bear trend will probably have to transition into a trading range, before the bulls can get a strong reversal up.

Day traders will only sell until there is at least a 20- to 30-pip rally. At that point, they will expect a trading range, and then they will begin to buy reversals up from the low for scalps.

Unless there is an extremely strong reversal up (50 or more pips), it will probably be easier to make money selling all day.

Once the bear trend converts into a trading range, the bears will switch to scalping from swing trading.

Bulls want today to close above yesterday’s low. That is only 31 pips above the current low, and therefore possible.

Today will probably close around yesterday’s low or below, and therefore near the low of the week.

EUR/USD: Trend Will Not Continue Much Lower

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EUR/USD: Trend Will Not Continue Much Lower

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