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EUR/USD: Pair Has 1.17 In Sight

By MaiMarFX (Marios Krausse)ForexOct 25, 2021 04:11AM ET
EUR/USD: Pair Has 1.17 In Sight
By MaiMarFX (Marios Krausse)   |  Oct 25, 2021 04:11AM ET
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The US dollar was virtually unchanged last Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear that the Fed will begin tapering bond purchases shortly. He said,

“The risks are clearly now to longer and more persistent bottlenecks, and thus to higher inflation, I do think it’s time to taper, and I don’t think it’s time to raise rates.” 

However, there is concern that faster tapering or more rate hikes will risk a slowdown. The Fed is expected to announce its taper at their policy meeting next week on Nov 3. 

This week we will have the European Central Bank decision on Thursday and the US GDP (Thursday) and core PCE data (Friday).

From a fundamental perspective, the US dollar might be vulnerable to a more significant correction going into the end of the month as Thursday’s US GDP report could show a slowing recovery. 

As for the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, no policy shifts are expected this month. The central bank is preparing for a significant policy overhaul at the final ECB meeting in December.

Policymakers could start phasing out the emergency plan in December while a new program could follow it.

This Thursday, the focus will be on the press conference and any hints from ECB President Christine Lagarde on faster interest rate increases amid a global surge in inflation.

Current expectations see no ECB rate hike through at least 2023.


To sum up, Thursday’s decision could end with no movement in the EUR/USD.

In short-term time frames, we will pay attention to a break above 1.1670, which could see a test of 1.17/1.1710. On the other side, bears will wait for a significant break below 1.16 to shift the focus toward 1.15.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

EUR/USD: Pair Has 1.17 In Sight

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EUR/USD: Pair Has 1.17 In Sight

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