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EUR/USD Falls to 5-Week Low as Inflation Eases

By MarketPulse (Kenny Fisher)CurrenciesJun 01, 2023 06:22AM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/eurusd-falls-to-5week-low-as-inflation-eases-200638629

By MarketPulse (Kenny Fisher) | Jun 01, 2023 06:22AM ET

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EUR/USD

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Eurozone inflation falls sharply
Debt ceiling deal sails through House of Representatives
JOLTS Job Openings beats expectations

The euro has edged higher on Thursday, trading at 1.0708, up 0.19%. The currency remains under pressure as the US dollar is flexing some muscles. On Wednesday, EUR/USD touched a low of 1.0635, its lowest level since March 20.

Will ECB pause as inflation falls?

There are clear signs of disinflation in the eurozone, as rising interest rates have dampened economic activity. Spain and France reported sharp drops in inflation in April, and Germany has followed suit, with inflation dropping from 7.6% in April to 6.3% in May. This was lower than the consensus of 6.8%. In the eurozone, inflation fell from 7% to 6.1%, below the consensus of 6.3%. Inflation has eased as energy prices have fallen sharply, with food prices also dropping.

Most importantly, eurozone core inflation fell to 5.3%, down from 5.6% and below the consensus of 5.5%. The ECB is focussed on the core rate, which excludes energy and food prices. The drop in the core inflation in April will add support for the ECB to take a pause in rate hikes, as early as the July meeting.

Debt ceiling deal sails through the House

The US House of Representatives approved the debt ceiling deal on Wednesday. The measure sailed through by a vote of 314-117. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill later this week, with the government forecast to hit the debt ceiling by June 5th.

On the employment front, JOLTS Job Openings rose to 10.1 million, above the upwardly revised prior reading of 9.7 million and the consensus of 94 million. This is another indication that the labour market remains very strong and if the nonfarm payrolls release on Friday is solid, the Fed may have to continue raising rates. Fed members are divided on whether to pause or hike at the June 14^th meeting, and Fed swap futures are pricing in a 67% chance of a 0.25% hike at the meeting.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Technical

There is resistance at 1.0753 and 1.0804
1.0675 and 1.0624 are providing support

Original Post

Comments (1)

Canadian Dollar Edges Higher as Retail Sales Rebound By Kenny Fisher - Sep 22, 2023

Canada retail sales climb 2% The Canadian dollar has posted losses on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3446, down 0.28%.Canada’s Retail Sales...

Week Ahead – US core PCE and Eurozone flash CPIs eyed after rate pause... By Trading Point - Sep 22, 2023

PCE inflation to grab attention on Friday as Fed signals higher for longerBut markets might be more worried about a government shutdown Eurozone flash CPIs will also be the in the...

EUR/USD Bulls Defend Support in the Mid-1.06s By Matthew Weller - Sep 22, 2023 1

US Dollar and Fed TakeawaysEurozone PMIs are on tap tomorrow, with expectations showing the potential for continued contraction. EUR/USD remains within a bearish channel as it...

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绮序解 Jun 01, 2023 7:11AM ET

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EUR/USD Falls to 5-Week Low as Inflation Eases

Will ECB pause as inflation falls?

Debt ceiling deal sails through the House

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