The EUR/USD is gaining rapidly, trading above the long-term and key resistance level 1.1380 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), and maintaining positive dynamics. The pair rallied during today's Asian session to hit 1.1724, hitting a 21-month high.
Moving higher could lead EUR/USD to resistance levels 1.2090 (ЕМА200 on the monthly chart), 1.2180 (50% Fibonacci level).
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the support level 1.1285 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction in the wave of the pair's decline from the level 1.3870, which began in May 2014), the pair will continue to decline towards the support levels 1.1170, 1.1115, and then return to the zone below the support level 1.1115 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) will mark the resumption of the bearish trend.
A breakdown of short-term support levels 1.1522 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) may become a signal for the implementation of this scenario.
From the news for today, which may increase volatility in the EUR / USD pair, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of the durable goods order and capital goods orders in the United States.
Weak data, worse than previous values may negatively affect the dollar quotes. Forecast for June: +7.2% (orders for durable goods), +2.3% (capital goods orders excluding defense and aviation).
After a strong fall in March and April, these are still weak indicators, indicating a still uncertain recovery of the American economy after its fall at the beginning of the year.
Thus, the euro could take initiative over from dollar, becoming an alternative to the dollar as a defensive asset.
Support Levels: 1.1580, 1.1522, 1.1420, 1.1380, 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1170, 1.1130
Resistance Levels: 1.1780, 1.2090, 1.2180
Trading Recommendations
- Sell Stop 1.1635. Stop-Loss 1.1720. Take-Profit 1.1580, 1.1522, 1.1420, 1.1380, 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1170
- Buy Stop 1.1720. Stop-Loss 1.1635. Take-Profit 1.1780, 1.2090, 1.2180
