EUR/USD Bounces off Two-Month Lows as Fed Expectations Flip

www.investing.com/analysis/eurusd-bounces-off-twomonth-lows-as-fed-expectations-flip-200638646

By Alex Boltyan | Jun 01, 2023 12:28PM ET

Saved. See Saved Items.

This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

EUR/USD

+0.05%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

The EUR/USD pair recovered ground on Thursday after touching its lowest level in over two months the previous day as expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve decision shifted to dovish while investors cheered with optimism the US House of Representatives passing the debt-ceiling bill.

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0750 zone, up 0.6% on the day and more than 100 pips above Wednesday's two-month low of 1.0635.

Market sentiment improved after the US House of Representatives passed the debt-ceiling bill on Wednesday, which now needs the Senate's green light.

However, the dollar took the hardest hit from dovish comments from Fed officials. Fed's Governor Philip Jefferson said a pause before more hikes later might allow the economy time to digest current tightening and avoid bank stress. His comments were echoed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker but defied by Cleveland Fed President, Loretta Mester, who said she saw no "compelling reason" to pause.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of future rate hikes has flipped from previously showing odds favoring a 25 bps hike in June to over 70% odds the Fed will leave rates unchanged on June 14.

On Friday, investors will be watching the US nonfarm payroll report to assess the state of the labor market.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair maintains a negative short-term bias according to indicators on the daily chart, although the bearish momentum has eased a tad.

The pair faces the next relevant resistance at the 1.0810-20 area, where the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) converges with the 100-day SMA, threatening to complete a death cross. Beyond that level, the EUR/USD perspective could improve, putting the 1.0900 area back on the radar.

On the other hand, the 1.0635 low stands as immediate support, followed by the 1.0600 psychological level.

USD/JPY: Waiting on the BOJ to Do Something Meaningful By Ed Moya - Oct 02, 2023

Japanese Officials jawboning unable to upend dollar rally overnight US 10-year real yields approach 15-year high Fed rate hike odds back over 50% for a hike by year-end Over the...

Technical Analysis: Where to Next for the EUR/USD? By Andrey Goilov - Oct 02, 2023

The main currency pair starts the week and the month by consolidating around the 1.0569 mark.The US Federal Reserve's intention to potentially raise interest rates once again in...

EUR/USD bounces off 8-month low; downtrend intact By Trading Point - Oct 02, 2023

EURUSD stuck in a clear downward path, posting a fresh 8-month bottom of 1.0487Formation of a death cross between 50- and 200-day SMAs could spell more troubleDespite latest...

Add a Comment

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:

Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
Only English comments will be allowed.
Any comment you publish, together with your investing.com profile, will be public on investing.com and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

I have read Investing.com's comments guidelines and agree to the terms described.

I Agree

Write your thoughts here

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Delete Cancel

Post

Post also to:

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

Replace Cancel

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.

<div id="comment">
				<div class="comment js-comment" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="">
    <div class="mainComment js-content">
       <div class="commentInnerWrapper">
        <a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody">
                					<span class="commentUsername">
                    	<a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link js-user-name">{username}</a>
					</span>
                                <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
                <div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

<div class="js-option addRow follow">
            <div class="js-follow-post-button" data-reg_ep="follow comment">
                <span class="alertfollowIcon middle"></span>Follow this post            </div>
            <div class="js-unfollow-post-button displayNoneImp">
                <span class="alertUnfollowIcon middle"></span>Unfollow this post            </div>
        </div>

<div class="addRow js-option save"  data-reg_ep="save comment">
		<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-save-item-btn" data-item-type="comments" data-item-id="{commentID}">
			<i class="saveItemBigIcon middle"></i>
			Save		</a>
	</div>
	<div class="addRow saveItemsConfirmation noHover displayNone js-saveItemResult">
		
<div class="content js-saveItemSuccess displayNone">
	<span class="mediumGreenSuccessIcon"></span><span>Saved. See <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a>.</span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
<div class="content js-saveItemAlreadySaved saveItemAlreadySaved displayNoneImp">
	<span>This comment has already been saved in your <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a></span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
	</div>

<div class="addRow shareButtons js-sharePopup displayNone">
			<div class="js-shareComment"><span class="js-shareCommentSpan"></span></div>
		</div>
	</div>
</div>
                 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div>             </div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="commentBigChart js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

<div class="reportComment js-flag float_lang_base_2">
                            <a href="javascript:void(0);" id="commentFlag_{commentID}">
                                <span class="reportCommentIcon middle"></span><span class="inlineblock middle">Report</span>
                            </a>
                        </div>
                    				</div>
					</div>
	   </div>
	</div>
	</div>			</div>
			<div id="reply">
				
    <div class="commentReply js-comment js-comment-reply" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="">
		<div class="commentInnerWrapper"><a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody js-content">
            				<span class="commentUsername">
					<a href="{userLink}" class="commentUsername js-user-link js-user-name" onMouseOver="">{username}</a>
				</span>
                        <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
			 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div> 			<div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

</div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="replyBigChart displayNone js-comment-chart">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
				<span id="commentSmallChart{commentID}" class="commentSmallChart pointer js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
                    <img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImageSmall}" width="116" height="52" alt="{commentAlt}">
                    <span class="chartMagnifyOverlay displayNone"></span>
                    <span class="searchGlassIcon chartMagnify displayNone"></span>
                </span>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Delete Cancel

Post

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

Replace Cancel

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

I feel that this comment is:

Spam

Offensive

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review

Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

5.50%

Nov 01, 2023

ECB

4.50%

Oct 26, 2023

BOE

5.25%

Nov 02, 2023

SNB

1.75%

Dec 14, 2023

RBA

4.10%

Oct 03, 2023

BOC

5.00%

Oct 25, 2023

RBNZ

5.50%

Oct 04, 2023

BOJ

-0.10%

Oct 31, 2023

CBR

13.00%

Oct 27, 2023

RBI

6.50%

Oct 06, 2023

PBOC

3.45%

BCB

12.75%

Nov 01, 2023

US 30	33,435.8	+2.4	+0.01%
US 500	4,291.6	+3.2	+0.07%
Dow Jones	33,433.35	-74.15	-0.22%
S&P 500	4,288.39	+0.34	+0.01%
Nasdaq	13,307.77	+88.45	+0.67%
S&P 500 VIX	17.61	+0.09	+0.51%
Dollar Index	106.730	+0.915	+0.86%

Crude Oil WTI	88.55	-0.09	-0.10%
Brent Oil	90.45	+0.03	+0.03%
Natural Gas	2.843	+0.003	+0.11%
Gold	1,844.20	+0.20	+0.01%
Silver	21.253	+0.015	+0.07%
Copper	3.6430	-0.0033	-0.09%
US Soybeans	1,276.50	+2.50	+0.20%

U.S. 10Y	4.683	-0.004	-0.09%
U.S. 30Y	4.796	+-0.000	+-0.01%
U.S. 5Y	4.714	+-0.003	+-0.07%
U.S. 3M	5.471	-0.015	-0.27%
US 10Y T-Note	107.39	+0.06	+0.06%
Euro Bund	127.72	-0.73	-0.57%
10-2 Yield Spread	-47.46	+1.30	+-2.67%

Apple	173.75	+2.54	+1.48%
Alphabet A	134.17	+3.31	+2.53%
Tesla	251.60	+1.38	+0.55%
Amazon.com	129.46	+2.34	+1.84%
Netflix	380.33	+2.73	+0.72%
Meta Platforms	306.82	+6.61	+2.20%
Bank of America	26.70	-0.68	-2.48%

EUR/USD Bounces off Two-Month Lows as Fed Expectations Flip

Related Articles