Recall AUD/NZD March 30 when its price traded at lower 1.0600’s and the reported target was located at 1.0964. The target then was known and AUD/NZD would trade to target 1.0964. Nothing on this planet would or could stop AUD/NZD to not trade to target. I bailed on this trade for 75 ish pips due to extremely poor performance and poor market memories.
2 months later, AUD/NZD just traded to 1.0902. Two months later where is the target or adjusted target from 1.0964 is unknown as AUD/NZD wasn’t worth the trouble to inspect further at 150 pips per month.
What is known at 300 pips from 1.0600’s is an under performed currency pair as currency markets are represented since March at overall 600 pips but far less today.
Adjusted target means every month or so may require a further inspection depending on the currency pair. Once a forecast is offered, the target is written in stone as was seen from past 35 trades. Today’s GBP/USD for example longer range target is 1.4199, 1 week ago was 1.4215 and 1.4225 from 2 weeks ago. GBP topside is dropping by roughly 10 to 15 pips per week. EUR/AUD target at 1.5736 from 1.6100’s achieved 1.5776 and is the probable target after 2 months.
Mind the Gaps. GBP/USD achieved today 1.3524. This price is located between today’s 1.3536 and 1.3511. But 1.3524 fails to represent the bottom. The bottom side has room and is located from 1.3511 to 1.3493 and 1.3493 to 1.3475. Mind the Gaps on the topside is located from 1.3593 to 1.3612.
Further protection to the topside is built in at 1.3619 because GBP has a distinct habit once every 2 or 3 months to trade bonkers. We are always prepared and welcome bonkers but even more prepared to Mind every possible pip inside Gaps.
Overbought AUD/NZD break points below are located at 1.0771 and 1.0723. Nothing special in AUD/NZD.
USD/JPY at 109.97 trades at its break point and its do or die for JPY to break above at 110.08 or travel lower to its bottom break at 109.10.
USD/CAD trades close to its break points at 1.2770 then 1.2719. CAD remains range bound since March from 1.2700’s to 1.3000’s but a move is building inside CAD.
EUR/USD break point dropped 10 pips since Sunday from 1.2070 to today’s 1.2060. EUR/USD is contained today at 1.1893 and 1.1877.
GBP/JPY break at 148.99 targets 149.25 and 149.51. The break point is now 149.58.
USD/CHF sits comfortably above 0.9809.
Brian Twomey