EUR/USD is flat in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2273, down 0.07% on the day. On the release front, eurozone indicators disappointed. Germany’s trade surplus fell to EUR 19.2 billion, well below the estimate of EUR 23.1 billion. This marked the smallest surplus since January 2017. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence softened for a third straight month, coming in 19.6, short of the forecast of 21.2 points. There are no US indicators on the schedule. On Tuesday, the US releases PPI, a key inflation indicator.
German industrial numbers disappointed last week. Factory Orders posted a weak gain of 0.3%, well off the forecast of 1.6%. On Friday, Industrial Production declined 1.6%, compared to an estimate of 0.2%. This marked the fifth decline in the past six months. Earlier in the week, German Manufacturing PMI softened to 58.2, missing the estimate of 58.4. Although the reading indicated expansion, there is cause for concern as it marked an 8-month low.
The euro gained ground on Friday, after the release of a spectacularly soft nonfarm payroll report in the US. The indicator fell to 103 thousand, well off the forecast of 188 thousand. Still, the markets do not appear overly concerned, as payroll reports often sag in March. On a more positive note, wage growth improved to 0.3%, matching the forecast. This improvement is likely to reinforce sentiment that the Fed could press the rate trigger four times in 2018.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
Monday (April 9)
- 2:00 German Trade Balance. Estimate 23.1B. Actual 19.2B
- 4:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. Estimate 21.2. Actual 19.6
Tuesday (April 10)
- 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.1%
- 8:3o US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%
*All release times are DST
*Key events are in bold
EUR/USD for Monday, April 9, 2018
EUR/USD for April 9 at 6:10 DST
Open: 1.2281 High: 1.2287 Low: 1.2260 Close: 1.2273
EUR/USD Technical
| S1 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1.2025 | 1.2092 | 1.2235 | 1.2319 | 1.2460 | 1.2581 |
EUR/USD has shown little movement in the Asian and European sessions
- 1.2235 is providing support
- 1.2319 is a weak resistance line
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2235, 1.2092 and 1.2025
- Above: 1.2319, 1.2460, 1.2581 and 1.2662
- Current range: 1.2235 to 1.2319
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio is unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (54%), indicative of EUR/USD breaking out and moving to lower ground.