Get 40% Off
🤯 This Tech Portfolio is up 29% YTD! Join Now to Get April’s Top PicksGet The Picks – Just 99 USD

Euro Ticks Higher, German Business Climate Meets Expectations

Published 05/25/2018, 05:03 AM
Updated 03/05/2019, 07:15 AM

EUR/USD has posted slight gains in the Friday session, erasing the losses seen on Thursday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1705, up 0.23% on the day. On the release front, German Ifo Business Climate ticked higher to 102.2, above the estimate of 102.00 points. In the US, the focus is on durable goods reports. Core durable goods orders is expected to climb to 0.5%, but the markets are braced for a decline of 1.3% from durable good orders. If the latter indicator does record a sharp decline, the dollar could lose ground.

As Italy moves closer establishing a new government, the EU and investors are watching nervously. On Wednesday, President Sergio Mattarella handed a mandate to Giuseppe Conte to form a coalition. Conte is from the Five Star Movement, which plans to govern with the Lega Nord. Both parties are anti-establishment and euro-sceptic. Their platform includes increased deficit spending and a crackdown on immigration, two issues which could put Italy, the third largest economy in Europe, on a collision course with Brussels. Earlier in the week, ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny admitted that the political situation in Italy had “created a lot of nervousness”, but that the new government would be judged on its actions.

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its May meeting. In the minutes, some Fed policymakers said they favored removing the phrase that “the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative”. Not surprisingly, the minutes didn’t shed light on the Fed’s plans, saying that another rate hike would occur “soon”, on the assumption that the US economy continues to perform as expected. Still, a quarter-point rate hike in August is virtually a given, with the CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) setting the odds of a hike at 95 percent. This would mark a second hike in 2018. After that? The Fed projection remains at three rates hikes in 2018, but some analysts are predicting four increases this year.

Dangerous Brinkmanship

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (May 25)

  • 4:00 German Ifo Business Climate. Estimate 102.0. Actual 102.2
  • All Day – ECOFIN Meetings
  • 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -1.3%
  • 9:20 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 10:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.8
  • 10:00 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
  • 11:45 US FOMC Member Rafael Bostic Speaks
  • 15:20 German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, May 25, 2018

EUR/USD Chart

EUR/USD for May 25 at 4:25 DST

Open: 1.1719 High: 1.1726 Low: 1.1687 Close: 1.1705

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1312 1.1448 1.1613 1.1718 1.1809 1.1915

EUR/USD continues to break below support levels. On Friday, the pair posted small gains in the Asian session and the trend has continued in European trade

  • 1.1613 is providing support
  • 1.1718 is a fluid line. Currently, it is a weak line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1613, 1.1448 and 1.1312
  • Above: 1.1718, 1.1809, 1.1915 and 1.2025
  • Current range: 1.1613 to 1.1718

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged in the Friday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD continuing to move higher.

Original post

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.